At the limits: habitat suitability modelling of northern 17-year periodical cicada extinctions (Hemiptera: Magicicada spp.)
At the limits: habitat suitability modelling of northern 17-year periodical cicada extinctions (Hemiptera: Magicicada spp.)
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DOI：
10.1111/geb.12002
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发表时间：
2013-04-01
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Bunker, Gerry
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cooley, John R.;Marshall, David C.;Bunker, Gerry
目的周期性成蝉是一个时间上孤立的、同步的多物种群落，它们在地理上大部分是相邻的，并且以拼图游戏的方式组合在一起。一些17年的蝉在历史时期已经灭绝。我们调查了造成这些破坏的两个一般原因：人类栖息地的破坏和冰后期气候变化。位置周期性蝉仅限于美国东部，大平原以东。我们记录的位置，已知的周期性周期性的两个窝的17年蝉在康涅狄格州，罗得岛，和上州纽约，美国。方法使用额外的分布记录的17年蝉，我们开发的栖息地适宜性模型，所有17年的周期蝉，使用的数据层，反映生态和人为因素。结果：与年平均温度和最温暖月份的温度相关的气候数据层对我们的模型贡献最大，与森林砍伐和栖息地破碎化相关的数据层贡献较小。两个有据可查的周期性蝉灭绝种群发生在这些模型预测17年蝉栖息地适宜性相对较低的地方。主要结论我们的研究结果和其他间接证据折扣的重要性，人为栖息地破坏在解释这些特定的precautions。
Aim Adult periodical cicadas emerge as temporally isolated, synchronized multispecies communities (broods') that are for the most part geographically contiguous and that fit together in jigsaw-puzzle-like fashion. Some year-classes of 17-year cicadas have become extinct within historical times. We investigate two general causes for these extinctions anthropogenic habitat destruction and post-glacial climate change. Location Periodical cicadas are confined to the eastern United States, east of the Great Plains. We document the locations of known periodical cicada extinctions in two broods of 17-year cicadas in Connecticut, Rhode Island, and upstate New York, USA. Methods Using additional distributional records of 17-year cicadas, we develop habitat suitability models for all 17-year periodical cicadas, using data layers that reflect both ecological and anthropogenic factors. Results Climatological data layers related specifically to annual mean temperature and temperature during the warmest months make the greatest contributions to our models, and data layers most specifically related to deforestation and habitat fragmentation tend to make much smaller contributions. Two well-documented extinct populations of periodical cicadas occurred in locations where these models predict relatively low habitat suitability for 17-year cicadas. Main conclusions Our results and other circumstantial evidence discount the importance of anthropogenic habitat destruction in explaining these particular extinctions.