Hydrologic impacts of climate change on the Nile River Basin: implications of the 2007 IPCC scenarios
Hydrologic impacts of climate change on the Nile River Basin: implications of the 2007 IPCC scenarios
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s10584-009-9693-0
复制
发表时间：
2010-06-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Kabat, Pavel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Beyene, Tazebe;Lettenmaier, Dennis P.;Kabat, Pavel
我们评估气候变化对尼罗河流域的水文和水资源的潜在影响，使用宏观水文模型。模型输入是偏差校正和空间缩小的21世纪世纪模拟，来自2007年IPCC第四次评估报告（AR4）存档的11个大气环流模型（GCM）和两个全球排放情景（A2和B1）。虽然所有的大气环流模型都同意21世纪世纪温度变化的方向，但预测降水变化的幅度、方向和季节性存在相当大的变化。我们的模拟结果表明，平均在所有11个GCM，尼罗河预计将经历流量增加的早期研究期间（2010 - 2039年），由于普遍增加的降水。由于降水减少和蒸发需求增加，预计世纪中期（2040 - 2069年）和晚期（2070 - 2099年）的径流量将减少。对于A2（B1）全球排放情景，阿斯旺大坝（HAD）的预测多模型平均流量占历史（1950 - 1999）年平均流量的百分比分别为111（114）、92（93）和84（87）。这些径流变化对尼罗河流域的水资源的影响进行了分析，通过量化每年的水电生产和灌溉水释放在HAD。在A2（B1）全球排放情景下，灌溉的长期HAD释放量在世纪早期增加到历史的106（109）%，然后在第二和第三阶段分别减少到历史的87（89）%和86（84）%。世纪初期，埃及的水力发电量将高于约10，000 GWH的年平均历史值，此后将基本上遵循径流趋势，但在GCM之间存在很大的变化。农业用水供应将受到不利影响，特别是在世纪后半叶。
We assess the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Nile River basin using a macroscale hydrology model. Model inputs are bias corrected and spatially downscaled 21st Century simulations from 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two global emissions scenarios (A2 and B1) archived from the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). While all GCMs agree with respect to the direction of 21st Century temperature changes, there is considerable variability in the magnitude, direction, and seasonality of projected precipitation changes. Our simulations show that, averaged over all 11 GCMs, the Nile River is expected to experience increase in streamflow early in the study period (2010-2039), due to generally increased precipitation. Streamflow is expected to decline during mid- (2040-2069) and late (2070-2099) century as a result of both precipitation declines and increased evaporative demand. The predicted multimodel average streamflow at High Aswan Dam (HAD) as a percentage of historical (1950-1999) annual average are 111 (114), 92 (93) and 84 (87) for A2 (B1) global emissions scenarios. Implications of these streamflow changes on the water resources of the Nile River basin were analyzed by quantifying the annual hydropower production and irrigation water release at HAD. The long-term HAD release for irrigation increases early in the century to 106 (109)% of historical, and then decreases to 87 (89) and 86 (84)% of historical in Periods II and III, respectively, for the A2 (B1) global emissions scenarios. Egypt's hydropower production from HAD will be above the mean annual average historical value of about 10,000 GWH for the early part of 21st century, and thereafter will generally follow the streamflow trend, however with large variability among GCMs. Agricultural water supplies will be negatively impacted, especially in the second half of the century.