Who Suffers During Recessions?
Who Suffers During Recessions?
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DOI：
10.1257/jep.26.3.27
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发表时间：
2012-06-01
影响因子：
8.4
通讯作者：
Schaller, Jessamyn
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hoynes, Hilary;Miller, Douglas L.;Schaller, Jessamyn
在本文中，我们研究了商业周期如何影响美国劳动力市场的结果。我们对周期如何影响不同年龄，教育，种族和性别的人的结果进行了详细的分析，并将大衰退期间的周期敏感性与20世纪80年代初的经济衰退进行了比较。我们提出了原始表格，并估计了一个国家面板数据模型，利用美国各州的商业周期的时间和严重程度的变化。我们发现，大衰退的影响在不同的人口群体中并不一致，对男性、黑人和西班牙裔工人、青年和教育程度低的工人的影响最为强烈。在三十年的时间里，在经济衰退期和经济扩张期，不同人口群体之间的周期性差异非常稳定。对于2007年的经济衰退，这些差异在很大程度上是由不同行业职业就业周期的差异造成的。
In this paper, we examine how business cycles affect labor market outcomes in the United States. We conduct a detailed analysis of how cycles affect outcomes differentially across persons of differing age, education, race, and gender, and we compare the cyclical sensitivity during the Great Recession to that in the early 1980s recession. We present raw tabulations and estimate a state panel data model that leverages variation across U.S. states in the timing and severity of business cycles. We find that the impacts of the Great Recession are not uniform across demographic groups and have been felt most strongly for men, black and Hispanic workers, youth, and low-education workers. These dramatic differences in the cyclicality across demographic groups are remarkably stable across three decades of time and throughout recessionary periods and expansionary periods. For the 2007 recession, these differences are largely explained by differences in exposure to cycles across industry-occupation employment.