Climate change and the latitudinal selectivity of ancient marine extinctions
Climate change and the latitudinal selectivity of ancient marine extinctions
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DOI：
10.1017/pab.2018.34
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发表时间：
2019-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
Kiessling, Wolfgang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Reddin, Carl J.;Kocsis, Adam T.;Kiessling, Wolfgang
地质上快速的气候变化预计会在整个地球表面不均匀地增加物种灭绝的风险。热带物种可能比温带物种更容易受到当前气候变暖的影响，因为热带气候速度快，海水含氧量降低。为了测试快速变暖是否确实优先增加了热带化石类群的灭绝风险，我们结合了对纬度灭绝选择性(LES)的强有力的统计评估，并结合了在古代物种灭绝危机中发生的气候变化的主要观点。使用全球海洋化石发生的数据集，我们评估了热带和温带属的灭绝速度，应用对数比率来评估影响大小和用于模型支持的Akaike权重。在经典的五大灭绝事件中，二叠纪末的大灭绝表现出温和的灭绝偏好，而晚泥盆世和三叠纪末的大灭绝则选择性地袭击了热带属。所推断的气候变化方向和LES之间的简单联系是特殊的，无论是在危机期间还是背景时期。更复杂的模型，包括采样模式和大陆架地区纬度分布的变化，表明热带LES通常与热带热量升高有关，而温带LES与全球寒冷温度有关。随着对未来的启示，我们的论文证明了热带高温、栖息地丧失以及两者在产生灭绝地理模式方面相互作用的能力的一致性。
Geologically rapid climate change is anticipated to increase extinction risk nonuniformly across the Earth's surface. Tropical species may be more vulnerable than temperate species to current climate warming because of high tropical climate velocities and reduced seawater oxygen levels. To test whether rapid warming indeed preferentially increased the extinction risk of tropical fossil taxa, we combine a robust statistical assessment of latitudinal extinction selectivity (LES) with the dominant views on climate change occurring at ancient extinction crises. Using a global data set of marine fossil occurrences, we assess extinction rates for tropical and temperate genera, applying log ratios to assess effect size and Akaike weights for model support. Among the classical "big five" mass extinction episodes, the end-Permian mass extinction exhibits temperate preference of extinctions, whereas the Late Devonian and end-Triassic selectively hit tropical genera. Simple links between the inferred direction of climate change and LES are idiosyncratic, both during crisis and background intervals. More complex models, including sampling patterns and changes in the latitudinal distribution of continental shelf area, show tropical LES to be generally associated with raised tropical heat and temperate LES with global cold temperatures. With implications for the future, our paper demonstrates the consistency of high tropical temperatures, habitat loss, and the capacity of both to interact in generating geographic patterns in extinctions.