CONFIDENCE-INTERVALS RATHER THAN P-VALUES - ESTIMATION RATHER THAN HYPOTHESIS-TESTING
CONFIDENCE-INTERVALS RATHER THAN P-VALUES - ESTIMATION RATHER THAN HYPOTHESIS-TESTING
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DOI：
10.1136/bmj.292.6522.746
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发表时间：
1986-03-15
影响因子：
105.7
通讯作者：
ALTMAN, DG
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
GARDNER, MJ;ALTMAN, DG
过度强调假设检验和使用P值 * 来区分显著或不显著的结果已经偏离了解释研究结果的更有用的方法，例如估计和置信区间。在医学研究中，研究者通常感兴趣的是确定组间测量结果的差异大小，而不是简单地表明它是否具有统计学意义。置信区间表示基于样本数据的一系列值，其中可能存在这种差异的总体值。给出了计算均值和均值间差异的置信区间的一些方法，其中比例信息相似。文中还对图形显示提出了建议。如果适合研究类型，则应将置信区间用于论文正文及其摘要中的主要发现。
Overemphasis on hypothesis testing-and the use of P values* to dichotomise significant or non-significant results-has detracted from more useful approaches to interpreting study results, such as estimation and confidence intervals. In medical studies investigators are usually interested in determining the size of difference of a measured outcome between groups, rather than a simple indication of whether or not it is statistically significant. Confidence intervals present a range of values, on the basis of the sample data, in which the population value for such a difference may lie. Some methods of calculating confidence intervals for means and differences between means are given, with similar information for proportions. The paper also gives suggestions for graphical display. Confidence intervals, if appropriate to the type of study, should be used for major findings in both the main text of a paper and its abstract.