Forecasting biological invasions with increasing international trade
Forecasting biological invasions with increasing international trade
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DOI：
10.1046/j.1523-1739.2003.02038.x
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发表时间：
2003-02-01
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
D'Antonio, CM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Levine, JM;D'Antonio, CM
我们使用历史数据来参数化物种积累模型，该模型将国际贸易与过去世纪美国非本土物种的建立率联系起来。然后，我们将这些关系与公布的贸易预测相结合，以预测未来昆虫，植物病原体和软体动物的入侵率。利用双对数和对数线性种-面积模型和Michaelis-Menten积累函数，合理地描述了非本地物种的积累与商品进口之间的关系。然而，后两个模型产生了明显更好的拟合。当加上预计的贸易预测，对数线性物种面积模型预测16-24%的分类特定的增加，在美国建立的非本土物种的数量从2000年到2020年。Michaelis-Menten模型预测的增长率要低得多，为3-6%，但即使如此，也意味着115种新的昆虫物种和5种新的植物病原体。这些结果表明，与人类造成的生物入侵相关的生态和经济成本可能在未来几十年继续大幅上升。
We used historical data to parameterize species-accumulation models relating international trade to the establishment rates of nonindigenous species in the United States over the past century. We then coupled these relationships with published trade forecasts to predict future invasion rates for insects, plant pathogens, and mollusks. Relationships between the accumulation of non-native species and merchandise imports were reasonably described by log-log and log-linear species-area models and Michaelis-Menten accumulation functions. However, the latter two models produced markedly better fits. When coupled with projected trade forecasts, the log-linear species-area model predicted 16-24% taxon-specific increases in the number of nonindigenous species established in the United States from 2000 to 2020. The Michaelis-Menten model predicted much lower 3-6% increases, but even this meant 115 new insect species and 5 new plant pathogens. These results suggest that the ecological and economic costs associated with human-caused biological invasions may continue to rise substantially over the coming decades.