Coastal Hazards from Tropical Cyclones and Extratropical Winter Storms Based on Holocene Storm Chronologies
Coastal Hazards from Tropical Cyclones and Extratropical Winter Storms Based on Holocene Storm Chronologies
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DOI：
10.1007/978-94-007-5234-4_20
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
S. M. May;M. Engel;D. Brill;P. Squire;A. Scheffers;D. Kelletat
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. M. May;M. Engel;D. Brill;P. Squire;A. Scheffers;D. Kelletat
在认识到过去和未来的气候变化后，出现了一个问题，即现代仪器资料是否充分反映了当前海平面上升高峰（约为890°）时期热带气旋和温带冬季风暴的年代学。过去的6000年)。在仪器出现之前的时代，地质和沉积学方法已经应用于地质和生物档案，如沿海沼泽，泻湖，冲刷特征或海滩山脊，显示出大约每100-300年发生一次强气旋的频率，这与最近记录的大量主要气旋形成鲜明对比。这些古风暴记录中有许多是不连续的或包含间断的，因此很难评估这些记录部分是代表没有大旋风的平静阶段，还是仅仅是档案记录旋风特征的能力的侵蚀或波动。许多问题仍然没有答案：由于以前的气旋的潜在数量可能储存在地形和沉积物中，如何确定这些气旋的强度？滩脊的峰顶高度是风暴潮高度、气压和气旋类别的良好指标吗？本文综述了古风暴学的重要成果，讨论了近几十年来气旋分布、频率和能量（即潜在危害）的开放性问题，以及这些参数在全新世中期的重建。
Aware of past and future climate changes, the question arose whether modern instrumental data adequately reflect the chronology of tropical cyclones and extratropical winter storms for the period of the present eustatic sea level highstand (approx. the past 6,000 years). For pre-instrumental times, geological and sedimentological methods have been applied at geo- and bioarchives such as coastal marshes, lagoons, washover features or beach ridges, showing a frequency of strong cyclones roughly every 100–300 years, which is in contrast to the high number of major cyclones recorded recently. Many of these palaeotempestological records are discontinuous or contain hiatuses and it may be difficult to evaluate whether these sections of the record represent quiet phases without major cyclones or simply erosion or fluctuations in the ability of an archive to record the signature of cyclones. Manifold questions are still unanswered: as the potential number of former cyclones may be stored in landforms and sediments, how can the intensity of these cyclones be identified? Is the crest height of beach ridges a good indicator for storm surge heights, air pressure, and cyclone categories? This paper reviews important achievements in palaeotempestology and discusses open questions of cyclone distribution, frequency and energy (i.e., hazard potential) in the last few decades and reconstructions of these parameters back into Mid-Holocene times.