Coastal sea level rise with warming above 2 °C
Coastal sea level rise with warming above 2 °C
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1605312113
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发表时间：
2016-11-22
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Moore, John C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jevrejeva, Svetlana;Jackson, Luke P.;Moore, John C.
人们普遍认为，全球变暖比工业化前水平高出两度是一个适当的阈值，超过该阈值，气候变化风险就会变得令人无法接受。代表性浓度路径 (RCP) 8.5 和 4.5 可能会在 2040 年至 2050 年间达到“2 摄氏度”阈值。由于海洋动力过程和与水团重新分布相关的重力变化，由此产生的海平面上升不会是全球统一的。在这里，我们提供全球海岸线升温超过 2 摄氏度目标的海平面上升概率预测。到2040年，在RCP8.5情景下，气温上升2摄氏度，超过90%的沿海地区海平面上升将超过全球估计的0.2 m，其中北美和挪威的大西洋沿岸预计将上升0.4 m。到2100年气温上升5℃，海平面将迅速上升，达到0.9m（中位值），80%的海岸线将超过全球海平面上升第95个百分位数上限1.8m。在RCP8.5下，到2100年，纽约预计上涨109万，广州预计上涨0.91万，拉各斯预计上涨0.90万，第95个百分位数上限分别为2.24万、1.93万和1.92万。发展中国家快速扩张的城市的沿海社区以及脆弱的热带沿海生态系统在本世纪中叶之后适应自青铜时代开始以来前所未有的海平面上升的时间将非常有限。
Two degrees of global warming above the preindustrial level is widely suggested as an appropriate threshold beyond which climate change risks become unacceptably high. This "2 degrees C" threshold is likely to be reached between 2040 and 2050 for both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and 4.5. Resulting sea level rises will not be globally uniform, due to ocean dynamical processes and changes in gravity associated with water mass redistribution. Here we provide probabilistic sea level rise projections for the global coastline with warming above the 2 degrees C goal. By 2040, with a 2 degrees C warming under the RCP8.5 scenario, more than 90% of coastal areas will experience sea level rise exceeding the global estimate of 0.2 m, with up to 0.4 m expected along the Atlantic coast of North America and Norway. With a 5 degrees C rise by 2100, sea level will rise rapidly, reaching 0.9 m (median), and 80% of the coastline will exceed the global sea level rise at the 95th percentile upper limit of 1.8 m. Under RCP8.5, by 2100, New York may expect rises of 1.09 m, Guangzhou may expect rises of 0.91 m, and Lagos may expect rises of 0.90 m, with the 95th percentile upper limit of 2.24 m, 1.93 m, and 1.92 m, respectively. The coastal communities of rapidly expanding cities in the developing world, and vulnerable tropical coastal ecosystems, will have a very limited time after midcentury to adapt to sea level rises unprecedented since the dawn of the Bronze Age.