Preliminary Assessment of Simulations of Climate Changes over China by CMIP5 Multi-Models
Preliminary Assessment of Simulations of Climate Changes over China by CMIP5 Multi-Models
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DOI：
10.1080/16742834.2012.11447041
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发表时间：
2012-01
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
X. Ying;Chong Xu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
X. Ying;Chong Xu
本文根据18个全球气候模式对20世纪世纪气候的模拟结果，以及耦合模式比对计划（CMIP 5）第五阶段的一组试验，对全球气候模式对中国当前气候的模拟性能进行了评价。与观测资料相比，模式能够较好地反映1961-2005年气温和降水的地理分布特征。对于温度的时间变化，模式似乎有一个良好的性能再现变暖的趋势，但显示出有限的技能降水。对于中国区域平均气温和降水，大多数模式低估了实际气温，高估了降水。18个模式模拟的标准差中，西部地区气温的标准差较大，而南方地区降水的标准差较大。
Abstract Based on 18 global climate models' simulations of the 20th century climate, a set of experiments within phase five of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5), the performances of simulating the pre-sent climate over China are assessed. Compared with observations, models can capture the dominant features of the geographic distributions of temperature and precipitation during 1961–2005. For the temporal changes of temperature, models appear to have a good performance on reproducing the warming tendency but show limited skills for precipitation. For the regional mean temperature and precipitation over the whole of China, most models underestimate the actual temperature and overestimate precipitation. Concerning the standard deviations of simulations by the 18 models, they are larger for temperature in the western part of China, while the standard deviations are larger for precipitation in the South.