SARS-CoV-2 Surveillance in the Middle East and North Africa: Longitudinal Trend Analysis.
SARS-CoV-2 Surveillance in the Middle East and North Africa: Longitudinal Trend Analysis.
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DOI：
10.2196/25830
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发表时间：
2021-01-15
影响因子：
7.4
通讯作者：
Oehmke JF
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Post L;Marogi E;Moss CB;Murphy RL;Ison MG;Achenbach CJ;Resnick D;Singh L;White J;Boctor MJ;Welch SB;Oehmke JF
COVID-19 大流行扰乱了数百万人的生活，迫使各国制定公共卫生政策以减缓传播速度。在中东和北非 (MENA)，油价下跌、贫富差距和公共卫生基础设施以及大量难民人口显着增加了 COVID-19 的疾病负担。鉴于这些加剧因素，公共卫生监测尤其有必要帮助领导人了解和实施有效的疾病控制政策，以减少 SARS-CoV-2 的持续存在和传播。本研究的目标是结合传统监测，为 COVID-19 传播提供先进的监测指标，以解释大流行速度、加速度、急动度和持续性的每周变化，以更好地了解一个国家爆发性增长的风险，并更好地为那些正在管理大流行的人员提供信息。现有的监测与我们的动态传播指标相结合，将为卫生政策提供信息，以控制 COVID-19 大流行，直到开发出有效的疫苗。我们采用纵向趋势分析研究设计，从公共卫生登记处提取了 30 天的 COVID-19 数据。我们使用经验差分方程来测量 MENA 的每日病例数，作为先前病例数、测试水平和每周轮班变量的函数，该变量基于动态面板数据模型，该模型是通过在 R 中实施 Arellano-Bond 估计器使用广义矩方法估计的。回归 Wald 统计量显着（χ25=859.5，P<.001）。 Sargan 检验并不显着，未能拒绝过度识别限制的有效性（χ2294=16，P=.99）。新型冠状病毒累计病例数最高的国家包括伊朗、伊拉克、沙特阿拉伯和以色列，分别有 530,380 例、426,634 例、342,202 例和 303,109 例。中东和北非地区的许多小国家的感染率高于病例数最高的国家。阿曼每10万人中有33.3人新增感染，巴林每10万人有12.1人，利比亚有14人，黎巴嫩每10万人有14.6人。自2020年1月以来累计死亡人数从多到少排列，伊朗、伊拉克、埃及和沙特阿拉伯分别为30,375人、10,254人、6120人和5185人。以色列、巴林、黎巴嫩和阿曼的 COVID-19 持续率最高，这是与前一周新增感染统计相关的新增感染数量。巴林的速度、加速度和加加速度均为正值，预示着爆炸性增长的潜力。静态和动态公共卫生监测指标可以更全面地了解中东和北非地区各国的流行病进展情况。静态测量捕获给定时间点的数据，例如感染率和死亡率。通过纳入速度、加速度、加加速度和 7 天持久性，公共卫生官员可以着眼于未来来设计政策。伊朗、伊拉克、沙特阿拉伯和以色列都表现出了最高的感染率、加速率、冲击率和7天持续率，促使公共卫生领导人加大预防力度。
The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the lives of millions and forced countries to devise public health policies to reduce the pace of transmission. In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), falling oil prices, disparities in wealth and public health infrastructure, and large refugee populations have significantly increased the disease burden of COVID-19. In light of these exacerbating factors, public health surveillance is particularly necessary to help leaders understand and implement effective disease control policies to reduce SARS-CoV-2 persistence and transmission. The goal of this study is to provide advanced surveillance metrics, in combination with traditional surveillance, for COVID-19 transmission that account for weekly shifts in the pandemic speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence to better understand a country’s risk for explosive growth and to better inform those who are managing the pandemic. Existing surveillance coupled with our dynamic metrics of transmission will inform health policy to control the COVID-19 pandemic until an effective vaccine is developed. Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 30 days of COVID-19 data from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in MENA as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel data model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R. The regression Wald statistic was significant (χ25=859.5, P<.001). The Sargan test was not significant, failing to reject the validity of overidentifying restrictions (χ2294=16, P=.99). Countries with the highest cumulative caseload of the novel coronavirus include Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Israel with 530,380, 426,634, 342,202, and 303,109 cases, respectively. Many of the smaller countries in MENA have higher infection rates than those countries with the highest caseloads. Oman has 33.3 new infections per 100,000 population while Bahrain has 12.1, Libya has 14, and Lebanon has 14.6 per 100,000 people. In order of largest to smallest number of cumulative deaths since January 2020, Iran, Iraq, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia have 30,375, 10,254, 6120, and 5185, respectively. Israel, Bahrain, Lebanon, and Oman had the highest rates of COVID-19 persistence, which is the number of new infections statistically related to new infections in the prior week. Bahrain had positive speed, acceleration, and jerk, signaling the potential for explosive growth. Static and dynamic public health surveillance metrics provide a more complete picture of pandemic progression across countries in MENA. Static measures capture data at a given point in time such as infection rates and death rates. By including speed, acceleration, jerk, and 7-day persistence, public health officials may design policies with an eye to the future. Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Israel all demonstrated the highest rate of infections, acceleration, jerk, and 7-day persistence, prompting public health leaders to increase prevention efforts.
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影响因子：
6.1
作者：
HANSEN, LP
通讯作者：
HANSEN, LP
影响因子：
4.5
作者：
Jomaa, Lamis;Naja, Farah;Hwalla, Nahla
通讯作者：
Hwalla, Nahla
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Jomaa, Lamis;Naja, Farah;Hwalla, Nahla
通讯作者：
Hwalla, Nahla
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Sawaya, Tania;Ballouz, Tala;Rizk, Nesrine
通讯作者：
Rizk, Nesrine
影响因子：
7.4
作者：
Oehmke JF;Moss CB;Singh LN;Oehmke TB;Post LA
通讯作者：
Post LA