The logic of prediction in psychology.
The logic of prediction in psychology.
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心理学中的预测逻辑。
DOI：
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发表时间：
1944
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
T. Sarbin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Sarbin
心理学家和其他社会科学家越来越关注与行为预测相关的问题。最近发表的一些论文就证明了这一点，这些论文涉及预测的精算方法与个人方法的问题(14、30、32、36、37、42、46、53)。有几项研究试图预测婚姻适应(11，47)。社会科学研究理事会最近出版了一本内容广泛的专著，回顾了有关个人适应预测的文献，并指出了一些需要研究的方向(18)。由于这一专题对心理和社会科学具有重要的方法论意义，此时适宜对预测概念进行逻辑分析。
To an increasing extent psychologists and other social scientists have become concerned with problems associated with the prediction of behavior. This is evidenced by a number of papers recently published which have dealt with the problem of actuarial versus individual approaches to prediction (14, 30, 32, 36, 37, 42, 46, 53). Several studies have attempted prediction of marital adjustment (11, 47). The Social Science Research Council recently published an extensive monograph which reviewed the literature on the prediction of personal adjustment and pointed the way to some needed research (18). Since this topic has important methodological implications for the psychological and social sciences, it would be appropriate at this time to essay a logical analysis of the concept of prediction.