The social contact hypothesis under the assumption of endemic equilibrium: Elucidating the transmission potential of VZV in Europe
The social contact hypothesis under the assumption of endemic equilibrium: Elucidating the transmission potential of VZV in Europe
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DOI：
10.1016/j.epidem.2014.12.005
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发表时间：
2015-06-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Hens, N.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Santermans, E.;Goeyvaerts, N.;Hens, N.
基本繁殖数R-0和有效繁殖数R是传染病流行病学中的关键参数，量化了感染在人群中的传播潜力。我们估计这两个参数从13个接种前水痘带状疱疹病毒（VZV）在12个欧洲国家的血清学数据集，并从人口为基础的社会接触调查的流行病和人口平衡的假设下。使用推断的有效繁殖数R作为模型合格性标准，结合AIC作为模型选择标准，评价与血清学的拟合。在12个国家中，只有2个国家共同选择的恒定比例系数足以提供与血清阳性率数据的良好拟合。对于其他国家，年龄特异性比例因子提供了更好的拟合，假设身体接触持续时间超过15分钟的区域是潜在水痘传播事件的良好代表。在所有国家，VZV的原发感染最常发生在幼儿期，但传播潜力存在很大差异，R-0范围从英格兰和威尔士的2.8到荷兰的7.6。两个非参数的方法，最大信息系数（MIC）和随机森林的方法，被用来解释这些差异的R-0在有关国家的具体特点。我们的研究结果表明与三个一般因素有关：财富不平等，婴儿疫苗接种覆盖率和儿童保育出勤率。这说明在制定和参数化传染病模型时，需要考虑欧洲国家之间的根本差异。(C)2015年，作者。由爱思唯尔公司出版
The basic reproduction number R-0 and the effective reproduction number R are pivotal parameters in infectious disease epidemiology, quantifying the transmission potential of an infection in a population. We estimate both parameters from 13 pre-vaccination serological data sets on varicella zoster virus (VZV) in 12 European countries and from population-based social contact surveys under the commonly made assumptions of endemic and demographic equilibrium. The fit to the serology is evaluated using the inferred effective reproduction number R as a model eligibility criterion combined with AIC as a model selection criterion. For only 2 out of 12 countries, the common choice of a constant proportionality factor is sufficient to provide a good fit to the seroprevalence data. For the other countries, an age-specific proportionality factor provides a better fit, assuming physical contacts lasting longer than 15 min area good proxy for potential varicella transmission events. In all countries, primary infection with VZV most often occurs in early childhood, but there is substantial variation in transmission potential with R-0 ranging from 2.8 in England and Wales to 7.6 in The Netherlands. Two non-parametric methods, the maximal information coefficient (MIC) and a random forest approach, are used to explain these differences in R-0 in terms of relevant country-specific characteristics. Our results suggest an association with three general factors: inequality in wealth, infant vaccination coverage and child care attendance. This illustrates the need to consider fundamental differences between European countries when formulating and parameterizing infectious disease models. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.