Radiation-Related Cancer Risks at Low Doses among Atomic Bomb Survivors
Radiation-Related Cancer Risks at Low Doses among Atomic Bomb Survivors
复制标题
原子弹爆炸幸存者中低剂量辐射相关的癌症风险
作者：
D. Pierce;D. Preston
摘要 Pierce, D. A. 和 Preston, D. L. 原子弹幸存者中低剂量辐射相关的癌症风险。为了澄清辐射效应研究基金会数据中有关低辐射剂量癌症风险的信息，我们重点关注剂量低于 0.5 Sv 的幸存者。由于上述原因，我们还将主要关注范围限制在距炸弹震源 3,000 m 范围内的幸存者。对 1958 年至 1994 年实体癌症发病率进行了分析，涉及该剂量和距离范围内 50,000 名幸存者中的 7,000 例癌症病例。结果为低至 0.05-0.1 Sv 的剂量提供了有用的风险估计，根据更广泛的剂量范围 0-2 Sv 或 0-4 Sv 计算的线性风险估计不会高估该风险。 0-0.1 Sv 范围内存在统计显着风险，任何可能阈值的置信上限计算为 0.06 Sv。表明当前正在考虑的中子剂量估计的修改不会显着改变结论。
Abstract Pierce, D. A. and Preston, D. L. Radiation-Related Cancer Risks at Low Doses among Atomic Bomb Survivors. To clarify the information in the Radiation Effects Research Foundation data regarding cancer risks of low radiation doses, we focus on survivors with doses less than 0.5 Sv. For reasons indicated, we also restrict attention mainly to survivors within 3,000 m of the hypocenter of the bombs. Analysis is of solid cancer incidence from 1958–1994, involving 7,000 cancer cases among 50,000 survivors in that dose and distance range. The results provide useful risk estimates for doses as low as 0.05–0.1 Sv, which are not overestimated by linear risk estimates computed from the wider dose ranges 0–2 Sv or 0–4 Sv. There is a statistically significant risk in the range 0–0.1 Sv, and an upper confidence limit on any possible threshold is computed as 0.06 Sv. It is indicated that modification of the neutron dose estimates currently under consideration would not markedly change the conclusions.