Prioritizing operational risks in container shipping systems by using cognitive assessment technique
Prioritizing operational risks in container shipping systems by using cognitive assessment technique
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DOI：
10.1108/mabr-11-2017-0029
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发表时间：
2018-04
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Son Nguyen;Haiyan Wang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Son Nguyen;Haiyan Wang
目的-本文旨在提出一种基于认知评估的技术，从集装箱运输或物流系统管理员的角度量化识别的操作风险。从风险量化中得出的结果可用于确定风险的优先次序，并支持风险预防和缓解的决策进程。设计/方法/方式-本文确定了集装箱航运运营风险（CSORs）从物流的角度。建立了基于模糊规则贝叶斯网络的多变量风险评价机制。基于失效模式与效应分析（FMEA）的改进的两级参数集被用来支持输入提取过程。通过将认知评估输入到模型中，基于其效用值对所识别的风险进行评估。通过算例和敏感性分析验证了模型的合理性和有效性。结果-在案例研究中的CSORs的优先列表中的最高职位主要是在物理流与前三个海盗和恐怖主义，不可抗力和港口拥堵的风险。从案例研究的结果与所有预定义的公理满意证明了可行性，并说明了建议的风险评估和优先级排序技术的功能。独创性/价值-控制风险是无可辩驳的集装箱航运和物流管理的一个重要问题，因为风险定义的不一致性和不确定性的参与。建议的风险评估机制和确定的CSOR列表可以在系统管理，决策和可靠性性能的有益。
Purpose This paper aims to propose a technique based on cognitive assessments to quantify identified operational risks from the perspective of container shipping or logistics system administrators. The results derived from the risk quantification could be used to prioritize risks as well as support the decision-making process in risk prevention and mitigation. Design/methodology/approach This paper identified container shipping operational risks (CSORs) from a logistics perspective. A multivariate risk evaluation mechanism by fuzzy rules Bayesian network (FRBN) was established. An improved two-level parameter set based on the failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) was used to support the input extraction process. By feeding cognitive assessments into the model, the identified risks are evaluated based on their utility values. An illustration example and a sensitivity analysis were carried out to justify and validate the proposed model. Findings The highest positions in the prioritized list of CSORs in the case study are dominated by risks in the physical flow with the first three are piracy and terrorism, force majeure and port congestion. The results derived from the case study with the satisfaction of all pre-defined axioms proved the feasibility and illustrated the functionality of the proposed risk assessment and prioritization technique. Originality/value Controlling risk is irrefutably a significant issue of container shipping and logistics management because of the inconsistency of risk definitions and the involvement of uncertainties. The proposed risk evaluation mechanism and the identified list of CSORs could be beneficial in system management, decision-making and reliability performance.