Multivariate climate departures have outpaced univariate changes across global lands
Multivariate climate departures have outpaced univariate changes across global lands
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-020-60270-5
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发表时间：
2020-03-03
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Parks, Sean A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Abatzoglou, John T.;Dobrowski, Solomon Z.;Parks, Sean A.
在过去的世纪中，个别气候变量的变化已被广泛记录。然而，考虑到多个气候变量之间的集体相互作用的变化的评估与理解气候对生态和人类系统的影响有关，但与单变量变化相比，记录较少。我们计算了1958 - 2017年期间相对于基线1958 - 1987年期间的年度多变量气候偏离，这些偏离解释了对地球生物群和相关系统重要的四个变量之间的协方差：年度气候水分亏缺，年度蒸散量，最冷月份的平均最低温度和最温暖月份的平均最高温度。结果表明，多变量气候偏离的积极趋势是全球陆地上单变量气候偏离的近三倍。在过去十年中，全球约30%的土地的年度多变量气候偏离超过两个标准差。在过去的六十年里，气候偏离的积极趋势主要是由于平均气候条件的变化与人为气候变化的模拟影响相一致，而不是变率的变化。这些结果凸显了通过多元透镜观察的年度气候条件越来越新颖，并表明近几十年来多元气候偏离的变化通常超过了单变量偏离。
Changes in individual climate variables have been widely documented over the past century. However, assessments that consider changes in the collective interaction amongst multiple climate variables are relevant for understanding climate impacts on ecological and human systems yet are less well documented than univariate changes. We calculate annual multivariate climate departures during 1958-2017 relative to a baseline 1958-1987 period that account for covariance among four variables important to Earth's biota and associated systems: annual climatic water deficit, annual evapotranspiration, average minimum temperature of the coldest month, and average maximum temperature of the warmest month. Results show positive trends in multivariate climate departures that were nearly three times that of univariate climate departures across global lands. Annual multivariate climate departures exceeded two standard deviations over the past decade for approximately 30% of global lands. Positive trends in climate departures over the last six decades were found to be primarily the result of changes in mean climate conditions consistent with the modeled effects of anthropogenic climate change rather than changes in variability. These results highlight the increasing novelty of annual climatic conditions viewed through a multivariate lens and suggest that changes in multivariate climate departures have generally outpaced univariate departures in recent decades.