A Comparison of Skill between Two Versions of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and CPC’s Operational Short-Lead Seasonal Outlooks
A Comparison of Skill between Two Versions of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and CPC’s Operational Short-Lead Seasonal Outlooks
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DOI：
10.1175/waf-d-12-00057.1
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发表时间：
2013-04
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Peitao Peng;A. Barnston;Arun Kumar
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Peitao Peng;A. Barnston;Arun Kumar
AbstractAnalysis的相对预测技巧的NOAA的气候预报系统版本1和2（CFSv 1和CFSv 2，分别），和NOAA/气候预测中心（CPC）的业务季节展望，进行了15年的共同期1995-2009。分析应用于预测的季节平均表面温度和总降水量在美国接壤的最短和最常用的提前时间为0.5个月。评估包括分类和概率验证诊断，他们的季节性，空间分布和概率可靠性。在可能的情况下，尝试将技能归因于具体的物理来源。分析的动机是记录两代NOAA动态季节预测系统之间的技能改进，并告知预测生产者，但更重要的是用户社区，现在使用的CFS模型（CFSv 2）的技能，以帮助指导用户的决策过程。
AbstractAnalyses of the relative prediction skills of NOAA’s Climate Forecast System versions 1 and 2 (CFSv1 and CFSv2, respectively), and the NOAA/Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) operational seasonal outlook, are conducted over the 15-yr common period of 1995–2009. The analyses are applied to predictions of seasonal mean surface temperature and total precipitation over the conterminous United States for the shortest and most commonly used lead time of 0.5 months. The assessments include both categorical and probabilistic verification diagnostics—their seasonalities, spatial distributions, and probabilistic reliability. Attribution of skill to specific physical sources is attempted when possible. Motivations for the analyses are to document improvements in skill between two generations of NOAA’s dynamical seasonal prediction system and to inform the forecast producers, but more importantly the user community, of the skill of the CFS model now in use (CFSv2) to help guide the users’ decision-making proce...