Spatiotemporal Patterns and Driving Factors on Crime Changing During Black Lives Matter Protests
Spatiotemporal Patterns and Driving Factors on Crime Changing During Black Lives Matter Protests
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DOI：
10.3390/ijgi9110640
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发表时间：
2020-10
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Zhiran Zhang;D. Sha;Beidi Dong;S. Ruan;A. Qiu;Yun Li;Jiping Liu;C. Yang
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文献类型：
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作者：
Zhiran Zhang;D. Sha;Beidi Dong;S. Ruan;A. Qiu;Yun Li;Jiping Liu;C. Yang
乔治弗洛伊德之死，给美国各城市带来了新一波“2020黑人命也是命”（Black Lives Matter，简称BLM）抗议活动。在最初几天，一些城市发生了抗议活动，并有暴力事件的报道。抗议活动似乎与犯罪率上升有关。本研究使用新收集的犯罪数据，在美国50个城市/县，探讨时空犯罪的变化下BLM抗议和估计的BLM抗议引起的入室盗窃的驱动因素。使用了四种空间和统计模型，包括平均最近邻（ANN）、热点分析、最小绝对收缩和选择运算符（LASSO）和二元逻辑回归。研究结果表明：（1）少数市县的犯罪活动，尤其是入室盗窃犯罪活动急剧上升，但各市县之间存在差异性;（2）在BLM抗议活动期间，某些犯罪类型的数量和空间分布发生了变化，入室盗窃活动在抗议活动期间集中在某些地区;（3）2019年的教育、种族、人口统计和犯罪率与BLM抗议活动期间的入室盗窃变化有关。这项研究的结果可以为确保警察和政府机构处理不断演变的危机的能力提供宝贵的信息。
The death of George Floyd has brought a new wave of 2020 Black Lives Matter (BLM) protests into U.S. cities. Protests happened in a few cities accompanied by reports of violence over the first few days. The protests appear to be related to rising crime. This study uses newly collected crime data in 50 U.S. cities/counties to explore the spatiotemporal crime changes under BLM protests and to estimate the driving factors of burglary induced by the BLM protest. Four spatial and statistic models were used, including the Average Nearest Neighbor (ANN), Hotspot Analysis, Least Absolute Shrinkage, and Selection Operator (LASSO), and Binary Logistic Regression. The results show that (1) crime, especially burglary, has risen sharply in a few cities/counties, yet heterogeneity exists across cities/counties; (2) the volume and spatial distribution of certain crime types changed under BLM protest, the activity of burglary clustered in certain regions during protests period; (3) education, race, demographic, and crime rate in 2019 are related with burglary changes during BLM protests. The findings from this study can provide valuable information for ensuring the capabilities of the police and governmental agencies to deal with the evolving crisis.