Predicting hotspots for influenza virus reassortment.
Predicting hotspots for influenza virus reassortment.
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DOI：
10.3201/eid1904.120903
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发表时间：
2013-04
影响因子：
11.8
通讯作者：
Smith TB
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fuller TL;Gilbert M;Martin V;Cappelle J;Hosseini P;Njabo KY;Abdel Aziz S;Xiao X;Daszak P;Smith TB
TOC summary: Reassortment is most likely to occur in eastern China, central China, or the Nile Delta in Egypt. The 1957 and 1968 influenza pandemics, each of which killed ≈1 million persons, arose through reassortment events. Influenza virus in humans and domestic animals could reassort and cause another pandemic. To identify geographic areas where agricultural production systems are conducive to reassortment, we fitted multivariate regression models to surveillance data on influenza A virus subtype H5N1 among poultry in China and Egypt and subtype H3N2 among humans. We then applied the models across Asia and Egypt to predict where subtype H3N2 from humans and subtype H5N1 from birds overlap; this overlap serves as a proxy for co-infection and in vivo reassortment. For Asia, we refined the prioritization by identifying areas that also have high swine density. Potential geographic foci of reassortment include the northern plains of India, coastal and central provinces of China, the western Korean Peninsula and southwestern Japan in Asia, and the Nile Delta in Egypt.
