Resource Wealth and the Risk of Civil War Onset: Results from a New Dataset of Natural Resource Rents, 1970—1999
Resource Wealth and the Risk of Civil War Onset: Results from a New Dataset of Natural Resource Rents, 1970—1999
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资源财富和内战爆发的风险：1970—1999 年自然资源租金新数据集的结果
DOI：
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发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
E. Neumayer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Indra de Soysa;E. Neumayer
现有文献将自然资源财富确定为内战的主要决定因素。占主导地位的因果关系是资源提供资金和动机（“掠夺叛乱分子”模式）。另一些人则认为自然资源导致了“政治荷兰病”，这反过来又削弱了国家能力（“国家能力”模型）。在掠夺叛乱者模型中，资源财富首先增加，但随后降低了内战的风险，因为巨大的财富使政府能够约束叛乱者，而在国家能力模型中，大量的资源财富与更高的战争风险毫不含糊地相关。本研究说明使用了一个新的自然资源租金数据集，并将其细分为矿产和能源租金，以处理资源与冲突的关系。我们发现，无论是主要石油出口国的虚拟变量，还是我们的资源租金变量，都不能预测1970年之后的内战爆发，Fearon和Laitin（2003）编码的1000人的战斗死亡阈值，租金数据可用。然而，使用25名战斗死亡的较低阈值，我们发现能源财富而不是矿产财富会增加内战爆发的风险。我们没有发现任何证据表明任何类型的资源与内战爆发之间存在非线性关系。研究结果初步支持了围绕国家能力模型建立的理论，并提供了反对内战爆发的掠夺叛乱分子模型的证据。
The existing literature identifies natural resource wealth as a major determinant of civil war. The dominant causal link is that resources provide finance and motive (the “looting rebels” model). Others see natural resources as causing “political Dutch disease,” which in turn weakens state capacity (the “state capacity” model). In the looting rebels model, resource wealth first increases, but then decreases the risk for civil war as very large wealth enables governments to constrain rebels, whereas in the state capacity model, large resource wealth is unambiguously related to higher risk of war. This research note uses a new dataset on natural resource rents that are disaggregated as mineral and energy rents for addressing the resources-conflict relationship. We find that neither a dummy variable for major oil exporters nor our resource rents variables predict civil war onset with a 1000-battle-death threshold coded by Fearon and Laitin (2003) in the period after 1970 for which rents data are available. However, using a lower threshold of 25 battle deaths, we find that energy wealth, but not mineral wealth, increases the risk for civil war onset. We find no evidence for a nonlinear relationship between either type of resources and civil war onset. The results tentatively support theories built around state capacity models and provide evidence against the looting rebels model of civil war onset.