Vulnerability of European freshwater catchments to climate change
Vulnerability of European freshwater catchments to climate change
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DOI：
10.1111/gcb.13657
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发表时间：
2017-09-01
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
David, Jonathan N. W.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Markovic, Danijela;Carrizo, Savrina F.;David, Jonathan N. W.
气候变化预计将加剧目前对淡水生态系统的威胁，但缺乏关于气候变化对淡水生物多样性的潜在影响的多方面研究，以便为管理规划提供信息。这项研究的目的是通过为评估适应淡水生态系统的气候变化脆弱性制定一个新的框架来填补这一空白。气候变化脆弱性的三个方面如下：(1)暴露在气候变化之下；(2)对变化的环境条件敏感；(3)恢复能力。我们的脆弱性框架包括1685种淡水植物、鱼类、软体动物、齿形动物、两栖动物、小龙虾和海龟，以及流域内和流域之间的关键特征，如地形和连通性。在各种未来气候变化模型和情景中，使用了几种方法将这些方面结合起来。由此产生的指数被叠加，以评估欧洲淡水生态系统在集水区尺度(18783个集水区)的脆弱性。巴尔干湖、奥赫里德湖、普雷斯帕岛和地中海群岛最容易受到气候变化的影响。对于本世纪30年代，我们在应用的方法中达成了共识，即多达573个湖泊和河流集水区非常容易受到气候变化的影响。大坝对水文生境连通性的人为破坏是降低气候变化适应能力的主要因素。差距分析表明，目前的欧洲保护区网络覆盖
Climate change is expected to exacerbate the current threats to freshwater ecosystems, yet multifaceted studies on the potential impacts of climate change on freshwater biodiversity at scales that inform management planning are lacking. The aim of this study was to fill this void through the development of a novel framework for assessing climate change vulnerability tailored to freshwater ecosystems. The three dimensions of climate change vulnerability are as follows: (i) exposure to climate change, (ii) sensitivity to altered environmental conditions and (iii) resilience potential. Our vulnerability framework includes 1685 freshwater species of plants, fishes, molluscs, odonates, amphibians, crayfish and turtles alongside key features within and between catchments, such as topography and connectivity. Several methodologies were used to combine these dimensions across a variety of future climate change models and scenarios. The resulting indices were overlaid to assess the vulnerability of European freshwater ecosystems at the catchment scale (18 783 catchments). The Balkan Lakes Ohrid and Prespa and Mediterranean islands emerge as most vulnerable to climate change. For the 2030s, we showed a consensus among the applied methods whereby up to 573 lake and river catchments are highly vulnerable to climate change. The anthropogenic disruption of hydrological habitat connectivity by dams is the major factor reducing climate change resilience. A gap analysis demonstrated that the current European protected area network covers