The FHCRC Lung Cancer Model
The FHCRC Lung Cancer Model
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01681.x
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发表时间：
2012-08-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Moolgavkar, Suresh H.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hazelton, William D.;Jeon, Jihyoun;Moolgavkar, Suresh H.
作为癌症干预和监测建模网络（CISNET）的成员，弗雷德哈钦森癌症研究中心（FHCRC）的肺癌（LC）小组开发了一个模型，用于评估美国肺癌死亡率趋势和烟草消费变化的影响。模型组件包括基于生物学的两阶段克隆扩增（TSCE）模型;吸烟模拟器，用于生成吸烟史和其他原因死亡率;以及调整时期和出生队列，以改善对美国LC死亡率的校准。TSCE模型首先被校准到五个实质性队列：英国医生，美国癌症协会CPS-I和CPS-II，卫生专业人员随访研究（HPFS）和护士健康研究（NHS）。NHS和HPFS队列包括最详细的吸烟史，并被选择代表吸烟对美国LC死亡率的影响。用校正后的TSCE模型和吸烟模拟器对U. S. LC死亡率。需要进一步调整，以考虑到未知因素。这提供了30-84岁和1975-2000日历年的模拟和观察到的美国LC死亡率之间的极好拟合。FHCRC LC模型可用于研究公共卫生信息对美国LC趋势的影响以及烟草控制政策的影响。例如，我们估计，由于自20世纪50年代中期以来对吸烟有害影响的认识不断提高，1975年至2000年期间有超过50万男性和20万女性避免了LC死亡。我们估计，如果吸烟者在1965年戒烟，110万男性和60万女性LC死亡是可以避免的。
As a member of the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET), the lung cancer (LC) group at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center (FHCRC) developed a model for evaluating U.S. lung cancer mortality trends and the impact of changing tobacco consumption. Model components include a biologically based two-stage clonal expansion (TSCE) model; a smoking simulator to generate smoking histories and other cause mortality; and adjustments for period and birth cohort to improve calibration to U.S. LC mortality. The TSCE model was first calibrated to five substantial cohorts: British doctors, American Cancer Society CPS-I and CPS-II, Health Professionals' Follow-Up Study (HPFS), and Nurses' Health Study (NHS). The NHS and HPFS cohorts included the most detailed smoking histories and were chosen to represent the effects of smoking on U.S. LC mortality. The calibrated TSCE model and smoking simulator were used to simulate U. S. LC mortality. Further adjustments were necessary to account for unknown factors. This provided excellent fits between simulated and observed U.S. LC mortality for ages 30-84 and calendar years 1975-2000. The FHCRC LC model may be used to study the effects of public health information on U.S. LC trends and the impact of tobacco control policy. For example, we estimated that over 500,000 males and 200,000 females avoided LC death between 1975 and 2000 due to increasing awareness since the mid 1950s of the harmful effects of smoking. We estimated that 1.1 million male and 0.6 million female LC deaths were avoidable if smokers quit smoking in 1965.