Ten new insights in climate science 2020 – a horizon scan
Ten new insights in climate science 2020 – a horizon scan
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2020 年气候科学的十大新见解 — 地平线扫描
DOI：
10.1017/sus.2021.2
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
5.5
通讯作者：
Fisher, Eleanor
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Pihl, Erik;Alfredsson, Eva;Bengtsson, Magnus;Bowen, Kathryn J.;Cástan Broto, Vanesa;Chou, Kuei Tien;Cleugh, Helen;Ebi, Kristie;Edwards, Clea M.;Fisher, Eleanor
< jats: sec id=" S2059479821000028_sec_a1">< jats: title>我们< jats: p>总结了过去一年在气候变化相关研究中的一些最重要的发现。新的研究提高了我们对地球对二氧化碳敏感性的理解，发现永久冻土融化可能释放出比预期更多的碳排放，热带生态系统对碳的吸收正在减弱。对人类社会的不利影响包括日益严重的水资源短缺和对心理健康的影响。通过重新思考经济模式、基于权利的诉讼、加强治理制度和新的社会契约，可以找到各种解决办法。COVID-19造成的破坏可被视为积极变革的机会，将经济刺激导向可持续投资。< jats: sec id=" S2059479821000028_sec_a2">< jats: title>技术摘要< jats: p>通过广泛学科范围的专家征集过程，对气候科学中自2019年年中以来取得重大进展的十个领域进行了综合。研究结果包括：（1）更好地理解平衡气候敏感性;（2）突然融化加速了永久冻土的碳释放;（3）全球和区域陆地碳汇的变化;（4）气候变化对水危机的影响，包括公平观点;（5）气候变化对心理健康的不利影响。（6）COVID-19大流行对气候的即时影响及落实《巴黎协定》所需的复苏方案;（7）建议从当前的流行病中吸取教训，对治理和社会契约进行长期改革，以应对气候变化，（8）更新积极的成本效益比，以及从短期和长期角度对绿色增长潜力的新看法;（9）城市电气化是一项向低碳能源系统迈进的战略，（10）基于权利的诉讼是应对气候变化的一种日益重要的方法，最近对后代的法律的地位和代表性作出了澄清。< jats: sec id=" S2059479821000028_sec_a3">< jats: title>最< jats: p>新气候科学的亮点之一是永久冻土融化加剧、COVID-19影响和日益严重的心理健康影响。
< jats: sec id=" S2059479821000028_sec_a1">< jats: title> Non-technical summary< jats: p> We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding of Earth's sensitivity to carbon dioxide, finds that permafrost thaw could release more carbon emissions than expected and that the uptake of carbon in tropical ecosystems is weakening. Adverse impacts on human society include increasing water shortages and impacts on mental health. Options for solutions emerge from rethinking economic models, rights-based litigation, strengthened governance systems and a new social contract. The disruption caused by COVID-19 could be seized as an opportunity for positive change, directing economic stimulus towards sustainable investments.< jats: sec id=" S2059479821000028_sec_a2">< jats: title> Technical summary< jats: p> A synthesis is made of ten fields within climate science where there have been significant advances since mid-2019, through an expert elicitation process with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include:(1) a better understanding of equilibrium climate sensitivity;(2) abrupt thaw as an accelerator of carbon release from permafrost;(3) changes to global and regional land carbon sinks;(4) impacts of climate change on water crises, including equity perspectives;(5) adverse effects on mental health from climate change;(6) immediate effects on climate of the COVID-19 pandemic and requirements for recovery packages to deliver on the Paris Agreement;(7) suggested long-term changes to governance and a social contract to address climate change, learning from the current pandemic,(8) updated positive cost–benefit ratio and new perspectives on the potential for green growth in the short-and long-term perspective;(9) urban electrification as a strategy to move towards low-carbon energy systems and (10) rights-based litigation as an increasingly important method to address climate change, with recent clarifications on the legal standing and representation of future generations.< jats: sec id=" S2059479821000028_sec_a3">< jats: title> Social media summary< jats: p> Stronger permafrost thaw, COVID-19 effects and growing mental health impacts among highlights of latest climate science.