Loss of suitable ocean habitat and phenological shifts among grouper and snapper spawning aggregations in the Greater Caribbean under climate change
Loss of suitable ocean habitat and phenological shifts among grouper and snapper spawning aggregations in the Greater Caribbean under climate change
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DOI：
10.3354/meps14165
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
EN Gokturk;B. Bartlett;B. Erisman;W. Heyman;RG Asch
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
EN Gokturk;B. Bartlett;B. Erisman;W. Heyman;RG Asch
：由于气候变化，在海洋物种中观察到了物候变化。模拟气候变化下鱼类产卵群（FSAs）的变化对适应性管理是有用的，因为它可以让管理人员在特定的生活史和物候反应的背景下调整保护策略。我们模拟了气候变化对加勒比FSA的分布和物候的影响，研究了4种笛鲷和4种石斑鱼。一个生态位模型被用来连接FSA与环境条件，从遥感和项目FSA的分布和季节性RCP8.5。我们发现石斑鱼和笛鲷对气候变暖的反应有显著差异。虽然有物种之间的变化，石斑鱼经历了轻微的延迟产卵季节，更大的损失，合适的海洋栖息地（平均损失：72.75%），和极移FSA分布。笛鲷有较大的转变，对早期的物候，与一个较小的损失，适合的海洋栖息地（平均损失：24.25%），不包括灰笛鲷，获得栖息地。笛鲷表现出种间变异的纬度分布的变化。笛鲷FSA似乎更适应气候变化，占据更广泛和温暖的产卵温度范围，而石斑鱼喜欢凉爽的产卵季节。因此，由于气候变化，石斑鱼可能会很快失去更合适的海洋产卵栖息地。当比较物种时，在分布变化、物候变化和栖息地适宜性下降方面，气候变化反应之间存在权衡。了解这种权衡可以帮助管理人员优先考虑海洋保护区的位置，并确定季节性捕捞限制的最佳时机，以保护在气候变化中易受捕捞压力影响的FSA。
: Phenological shifts have been observed among marine species due to climate change. Modeling changes in fish spawning aggregations (FSAs) under climate change can be useful for adaptive management, because it can allow managers to adjust conservation strategies in the context of specific life history and phenological responses. We modeled effects of climate change on the distribution and phenology of Caribbean FSAs, examining 4 snapper and 4 grouper species. An ecological niche model was used to link FSAs with environmental conditions from remote sensing and project FSA distribution and seasonality under RCP8.5. We found significant differences between groupers and snappers in response to warming. While there was variation among species, groupers experienced slight delays in spawning season, a greater loss of suitable ocean habitat (average loss: 72.75%), and poleward shifts in FSA distribution. Snappers had larger shifts towards earlier phenology, with a smaller loss of suitable ocean habitat (average loss: 24.25%), excluding gray snapper, which gained habitat. Snappers exhibited interspecific variability in latitudinal distribution shifts. Snapper FSAs appeared more resilient to climate change and occupy wider and warmer spawning temperature ranges, while groupers prefer cooler spawning seasons. Consequently, groupers may lose more suitable ocean spawning habitat sooner due to climate change. When comparing species, there were trade-offs among climate change responses in terms of distribution shifts, phenology changes, and declines in habitat suitability. Understanding such trade-offs can help managers prioritize marine protected area locations and determine the optimal timing of seasonal fishing restrictions to protect FSAs vulnerable to fishing pressure in a changing climate.