High-resolution mapping of combustion processes and implications for CO 2 emissions
High-resolution mapping of combustion processes and implications for CO 2 emissions
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DOI：
10.5194/acp-13-5189-2013
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发表时间：
2012-08
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Rong Wang;S. Tao;P. Ciais;Huizhong Shen;Yongmei Huang;Haoxuan Chen;G. Shen;Baolin Wang;Wei Li-W
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Rong Wang;S. Tao;P. Ciais;Huizhong Shen;Yongmei Huang;Haoxuan Chen;G. Shen;Baolin Wang;Wei Li-W
抽象的。燃料燃烧和CO 2 排放的高分辨率测绘为污染物传输建模、制定缓解政策以及CO 2 通量逆向建模提供了有价值的信息。以前的全球排放地图仅包括几种燃料类型，并且通过使用人口密度地图在人均基础上平均分配国家燃料数据来在网格上估算排放量。这一过程扭曲了各国内部排放的地理分布。在这项研究中，采用燃料数据的地方分解方法（SDM），根据2007年64种燃料子类型建立了全球0.1°×0.1°地理参考燃料燃烧清单（PKU-FUEL）和相应的CO 2 排放量（PKU-CO 2 ）。使用蒙特卡罗方法评估了排放图的不确定性。据估计，2007年化石燃料、生物质和固体废物等燃烧源的CO 2 排放量为11.2 Pg C yr -1 （第5个和第95个百分位数为9.1 Pg C yr -1 和13.3 Pg C yr -1 ）。其中，化石燃料燃烧的排放量为7.83 Pg C yr -1 ，非常接近国际能源机构的估计值（7.87 Pg C yr -1 ）。通过在本研究中用地方数据代替国家数据分解，所有网格点的CO 2 排放平均95-5%范围可以从417 Mg km -2 yr -1 减少到68.2 Mg km -2 yr -1 。由于直接使用次国家燃料消耗数据可以更好地考虑国家内部人均燃料消耗分布不均的情况，因此差距得以缩小。发展中国家城乡人均CO 2 排放量存在显着差异（2.08 vs. 0.598 Mg C/(cap. × yr)），但发达国家则不存在显着差异（3.55 vs. 3.41 Mg C/(cap. × yr)）。这意味着发展中国家的快速城市化很可能会增加未来的排放量。
Abstract. High-resolution mapping of fuel combustion and CO 2 emission provides valuable information for modeling pollutant transport, developing mitigation policy, and for inverse modeling of CO 2 fluxes. Previous global emission maps included only few fuel types, and emissions were estimated on a grid by distributing national fuel data on an equal per capita basis, using population density maps. This process distorts the geographical distribution of emissions within countries. In this study, a sub-national disaggregation method (SDM) of fuel data is applied to establish a global 0.1° × 0.1° geo-referenced inventory of fuel combustion (PKU-FUEL) and corresponding CO 2 emissions (PKU-CO 2 ) based upon 64 fuel sub-types for the year 2007. Uncertainties of the emission maps are evaluated using a Monte Carlo method. It is estimated that CO 2 emission from combustion sources including fossil fuel, biomass, and solid wastes in 2007 was 11.2 Pg C yr −1 (9.1 Pg C yr −1 and 13.3 Pg C yr −1 as 5th and 95th percentiles). Of this, emission from fossil fuel combustion is 7.83 Pg C yr −1 , which is very close to the estimate of the International Energy Agency (7.87 Pg C yr −1 ). By replacing national data disaggregation with sub-national data in this study, the average 95th minus 5th percentile ranges of CO 2 emission for all grid points can be reduced from 417 to 68.2 Mg km −2 yr −1 . The spread is reduced because the uneven distribution of per capita fuel consumptions within countries is better taken into account by using sub-national fuel consumption data directly. Significant difference in per capita CO 2 emissions between urban and rural areas was found in developing countries (2.08 vs. 0.598 Mg C/(cap. × yr)), but not in developed countries (3.55 vs. 3.41 Mg C/(cap. × yr)). This implies that rapid urbanization of developing countries is very likely to drive up their emissions in the future.