Estimated non-linearities and multiple equilibria in a model of distributive-demand cycles
Estimated non-linearities and multiple equilibria in a model of distributive-demand cycles
复制标题
分配需求循环模型中的估计非线性和多重均衡
DOI：
10.1080/02692171.2010.534441
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发表时间：
2011
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
L. Taylor
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Daniele Tavani;P. Flaschel;L. Taylor
我们将美国工资菲利普斯曲线的非参数估计结果引入Flaschel和Krolzig（2008）的工资价格螺旋模型的简化版本。利用奥肯定律，工资通胀-就业关系中的非线性转化为所谓的经济“分配曲线”中的非线性。利用观察到的非线性扩展标准的需求分布模型（泰勒2004年），我们提供了一个动态分析，在工资主导和利润主导的有效需求制度。在利润主导的情景中，这是美国经济的经验相关案例，存在古德温（1967）增长周期类型的两个稳定均衡，即稳定萧条和稳定繁荣，以及介于两者之间的鞍形路径稳定均衡。这两个稳定的稳态都被围绕吸引盆逆时针循环的轨迹所包围。所得到的增长波动类型可以通过使用Kauermann，Teuber and Flaschel（2008）开发的方法对美国经济进行长阶段周期估计来验证。
Abstract We introduce the results of a non-parametric estimate of the US wage-Phillips Curve into a simplified version of the model of the wage-price spiral by Flaschel and Krolzig (2008). Making use of Okun’s law, the non-linearity in the wage inflation-employment relation translates into a non-linearity in the so-called ‘distributive curve’ of the economy. Exploiting the observed non-linearity in extending an otherwise standard demand-distribution model (Taylor 2004), we provide a dynamical analysis both in wage-led and profit-led effective demand regimes. In a profit-led scenario, shown to be the empirically relevant case for the US economy, there are two stable equilibria of Goodwin (1967) growth cycle type, identified as a stable depression and a stable boom, and a saddle-path stable equilibrium in between them. Both stable steady states are surrounded by trajectories that cycle counterclockwise around their basins of attraction. The obtained type of growth fluctuations can be verified by a long phase cycle estimation for the US economy using a method developed by Kauermann, Teuber and Flaschel (2008).