Developments in air transport: implications on investment decisions, profitability and survival of Asian airlines
Developments in air transport: implications on investment decisions, profitability and survival of Asian airlines
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DOI：
10.1016/s0969-6997(01)00026-6
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发表时间：
2001-09-01
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
Tay, JH
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chin, ATH;Tay, JH
航空公司的投资决策和盈利能力包括空中交通预测等要素。订单和交付周期、利润周期、航空公司增长和亚洲的生存能力。回归分析表明，航空交通量增长率与GDP增长率呈正相关。对飞机订购和交付周期的研究表明，亚洲航空公司通常在获得良好利润后一年订购新飞机，这些飞机在2-3年后交付。飞机的交付导致运力过剩，而客座率的下降则压低了航空公司的利润。经济周期在该行业被产能投资放大。马尔可夫模型被用来检验航空公司增长和盈利能力之间的关系，并预测亚洲航空公司的生存概率。研究结果显示，航空公司的成长性与获利能力呈正相关。航空公司的生存概率随着资产规模和利润的增加而增加。对亚洲航空公司的关键影响是改进其预测技术。能力灵活性和对不断变化的环境的反应能力。(C)2001爱思唯尔科技有限公司版权所有。
The investment decisions and profitability of airlines encompasses elements such as air traffic forecasting. the cycles of orders and deliveries, profit cycles, airline growth and survivability in Asia. Regression analysis showed that air traffic growth rates are positively associated with GDP growth rates. The study of the cycles of aircraft orders and deliveries reveal that Asian carriers usually place orders for new aircraft a year after making good profits and these aircraft are delivered after 2-3 years. The delivery of aircraft results in over-capacity, and the decrease in load factors depresses airline profits. Economic cycles are amplified in the industry by capacity investments. The Markov Model was adapted to test the relationship between airline growth and profitability and to predict the survival probabilities of Asian carriers. The results of the study indicate that an airline's growth and profitability are positively related. The survival probabilities of airlines increase as asset size and profits increase. The key implications for Asian airlines are to improve their forecasting techniques. capacity flexibility and responsiveness to the changing environment. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.