A Statistical Comparative Planetology Approach to Maximize the Scientific Return of Future Exoplanet Characterization Efforts
A Statistical Comparative Planetology Approach to Maximize the Scientific Return of Future Exoplanet Characterization Efforts
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一种统计比较行星学方法，可最大限度地提高未来系外行星表征工作的科学回报
DOI：
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
E. Wolf
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jade H. Checlair;D. Abbot;R. Webber;Y. K. Feng;J. Bean;E. Schwieterman;C. Stark;T. Robinson;E. Kempton;Olivia D. N. Alcabes;D. Apai;G. Arney;N. Cowan;S. Domagal‐Goldman;C. Dong;David P. Fleming;Y. Fujii;Robert J. Graham;S. Guzewich;Y. Hasegawa;B. Hayworth;S. Kane;E. Kite;T. Komacek;R. Kopparapu;M. Mansfield;N. Marounina;B. Montet;S. Olson;A. Paradise;P. Popović;B. Rackham;R. Ramirez;G. Rau;C. Reinhard;J. Renaud;L. Rogers;L. Walkowicz;A. Warren;E. Wolf
如果部署了足够的资源，我们可以期待一个非凡的未来，我们将在其中描述潜在的宜居行星。到目前为止，我们不得不将观测结果的解释建立在尚未经过检验的宜居性假设的基础上。为了通过观察来检验这些理论，我们提出了一种统计比较行星学方法来解决行星宜居性问题。这种方法的主要目标是快速、廉价地测量大量系外行星的关键行星特征，利用统计边缘化来回答广泛的宜居性问题。这放宽了获取给定行星多种类型数据的要求，因为它允许我们使用集合的力量仅通过一种类型的测量来测试给定的假设。这种方法与“系统科学”方法形成鲜明对比，在“系统科学”方法中，将通过多种类型的测量来广泛研究一些行星。系统科学方法存在许多可能限制总体科学回报的困难，包括：有限的光谱覆盖范围和仪器噪声、系外行星的多样性以及潜在的假阴性和假阳性的广泛列表。统计方法还可以通过提供背景来解释对特别感兴趣的行星的广泛测量，从而补充系统科学框架。我们强烈建议未来的任务重点关注系外行星的特征，并能够以同质的方式研究大量行星，而不是专门针对小样本的行星进行小型、深入的研究。
Provided that sufficient resources are deployed, we can look forward to an extraordinary future in which we will characterize potentially habitable planets. Until now, we have had to base interpretations of observations on habitability hypotheses that have remained untested. To test these theories observationally, we propose a statistical comparative planetology approach to questions of planetary habitability. The key objective of this approach will be to make quick and cheap measurements of critical planetary characteristics on a large sample of exoplanets, exploiting statistical marginalization to answer broad habitability questions. This relaxes the requirement of obtaining multiple types of data for a given planet, as it allows us to test a given hypothesis from only one type of measurement using the power of an ensemble. This approach contrasts with a "systems science" approach, where a few planets would be extensively studied with many types of measurements. A systems science approach is associated with a number of difficulties which may limit overall scientific return, including: the limited spectral coverage and noise of instruments, the diversity of exoplanets, and the extensive list of potential false negatives and false positives. A statistical approach could also be complementary to a systems science framework by providing context to interpret extensive measurements on planets of particular interest. We strongly recommend future missions with a focus on exoplanet characterization, and with the capability to study large numbers of planets in a homogenous way, rather than exclusively small, intense studies directed at a small sample of planets.