Lifting the US Crude Oil Export Ban: A Numerical Partial-Equilibrium Analysis
Lifting the US Crude Oil Export Ban: A Numerical Partial-Equilibrium Analysis
复制标题
解除美国原油出口禁令：数值偏均衡分析
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
F. Holz
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lissy Langer;D. Huppmann;F. Holz
全球原油市场的动荡和北美页岩油产量的激增，引发了对美国原油出口禁令的审查。本文研究了空间博弈论部分均衡模型中的全球流动和战略炼油厂调整。我们考虑详细的供应链基础设施，包括多种原油品质（供应）、不同的石油产品（需求）以及特定的炼油厂配置和运输方式（中游）。产能和基础设施投资是内生的。我们比较了全球石油市场的两种发展路径：一种是保留美国出口禁令的预测，另一种是取消出口限制的反事实情景。解除美国原油禁令后，我们发现美国低硫原油出口大幅扩张。在美国炼油行业，更多的重质含硫原油被进口和转化。尽管美国生产商获利，但由于市场扭曲减少和资源配置效率提高，美国炼油商利润却下降。进口美国低硫原油的国家受益于更高的产品产量，同时避免了昂贵的炼油厂投资。重质高硫原油生产商（例如中东）被激励向价值链上游攀升，以捍卫其市场份额并保持主导地位。
The upheaval in global crude oil markets and the boom in oil production from shale plays in North America have brought scrutiny on the export ban for crude oil in the United States. This paper examines the global flows and strategic refinery adjustments in a spatial, game-theoretic partial-equilibrium model. We consider de- tailed supply chain infrastructure with multiple crude oil qualities (supply), distinct oil products (demand), as well as specific refinery configurations and modes of transport (mid-stream). Investments in production capacity and infrastructure are endogenous. We compare two development pathways for the global oil market: one projection retaining the US export ban, and a counterfactual scenario lifting the export restrictions. Lifting the US crude ban, we find significant expansion of US sweet crude exports. In the US refinery sector, more heavy sour crude is imported and transformed. While US producers gain, the profits of US refiners decrease, due to reduced market distortions and a more efficient resource allocation. Countries importing US sweet crude benefit from higher product output, while avoiding costly refinery investments. Producers of heavy sour crude (e.g. the Middle East) are incentivised to climb up the value chain to defend their market share and maintain their dominant position.