Health burdens of surface ozone in the UK for a range of future scenarios
Health burdens of surface ozone in the UK for a range of future scenarios
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envint.2013.09.010
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发表时间：
2013-11-01
影响因子：
11.8
通讯作者：
Vardoulakis, Sotiris
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Heal, Mathew R.;Heaviside, Clare;Vardoulakis, Sotiris
接触地面臭氧（O-3）受前体化学物质排放、气象和人口分布的影响，与过高的死亡率和呼吸道疾病有关。在这项研究中，EMEP-WRF大气化学传输模式被用来模拟地面O-3浓度在5公里水平分辨率在不列颠群岛的基线年为2003年，为2030年的三个人为排放的情景，并为+5摄氏度的空气温度上升的2003年基线。英国12个地区的死亡和住院负担是根据人口加权的每日最大8小时O-3计算的。英国上空年平均地表O-3在+5 ℃温度下的变化幅度（+1.0至+1.5 ppbv，取决于地区）与年际气象变化（-1.5至+1.5 ppbv）相当，但远低于2030年前体排放变化引起的变化（-3.0至+3.5 ppbv，取决于情景和地区）。包括2030年的人口变化，“现行立法”和“最大可行减排”情景都比“高”排放情景产生更大的O-3可归因于健康负担：分别为+28%、+22%和+16%，高于2003年基线死亡（11，500人）和呼吸道住院（30，700人），使用全年的O-3暴露，没有健康影响的阈值。健康负担是最大的“现行立法”的情况下，因为O-3浓度增加，作为背景O-3浓度增加和减少英国NO排放的结果。对于+5摄氏度的情景，没有阈值（不包括人口增长），与2003年基线相比，联合王国的总健康负担增加了500例过早死亡（4%）。如果假设臭氧-3效应的阈值为35 ppbv，健康负担对现行立法和+5 ℃情景更为敏感，尽管总健康负担大约低一个数量级。在所有情景中，与无阈值假设相比，阈值假设增加了联合王国南部和东部的健康负担比例。该研究强调，英国的总体和地理分配的O-3健康负担对半球、区域和局部O-3前体排放的未来趋势以及O-3阈值的假设高度敏感。3效应。(C)2013爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
Exposure to surface ozone (O-3), which is influenced by emissions of precursor chemical species, meteorology and population distribution, is associated with excess mortality and respiratory morbidity. In this study, the EMEP-WRF atmospheric chemistry transport model was used to simulate surface O-3 concentrations at 5 km horizontal resolution over the British Isles for a baseline year of 2003, for three anthropogenic emissions scenarios for 2030, and for a +5 degrees C increase in air temperature on the 2003 baseline. Deaths brought forward and hospitalisation burdens for 12 UK regions were calculated from population-weighted daily maximum 8-hour O-3. The magnitude of changes in annual mean surface O-3 over the UK for +5 degrees C temperature (+1.0 to +1.5 ppbv, depending on region) was comparable to those due to inter-annual meteorological variability (-1.5 to +1.5 ppbv) but considerably less than changes due to precursor emissions changes by 2030 (-3.0 to +3.5 ppbv, depending on scenario and region). Including population changes in 2030, both the 'current legislation' and 'maximum feasible reduction' scenarios yield greater O-3-attributable health burdens than the 'high' emission scenario: +28%, +22%, and +16%, respectively, above 2003 baseline deaths brought forward (11,500) and respiratory hospital admissions (30,700), using O-3 exposure over the full year and no threshold for health effects. The health burdens are greatest under the 'current legislation' scenario because O-3 concentrations increase as a result of both increases in background O-3 concentration and decreases in UK NO emissions. For the +5 degrees C scenario, and no threshold (and not including population increases), total UK health burden increases by 500 premature deaths (4%) relative to the 2003 baseline. If a 35 ppbv threshold for O-3 effects is assumed, health burdens are more sensitive to the current legislation and +5 degrees C scenarios, although total health burdens are roughly an order of magnitude lower. In all scenarios, the assumption of a threshold increases the proportion of health burden in the south and east of the UK compared with the no threshold assumption. The study highlights that the total, and geographically-apportioned, O-3-attributable health burdens in the UK are highly sensitive to the future trends of hemispheric, regional and local emissions of O-3 precursors, and to the assumption of a threshold for O-3 effect. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.