Modeling dual-scale epidemic dynamics on complex networks with reaction diffusion processes
Modeling dual-scale epidemic dynamics on complex networks with reaction diffusion processes
复制标题
通过反应扩散过程对复杂网络上的双尺度流行病动力学进行建模
DOI：
10.1631/jzus.c1300243
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发表时间：
2014-04-01
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Min, Yong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jin, Xiao-gang;Min, Yong
严重食源性疾病的频繁爆发（例如，溶血性尿毒综合征和李斯特菌病）在2011年警告说，世界贸易可能传播致命病原体（例如，肠出血性大肠杆菌）。来自贸易的流行病潜力涉及内部扩散和相互扩散。在这里，我们提出了一个世界范围内的蔬菜贸易网络和一个随机计算模型来模拟全球贸易介导的流行病，考虑加权节点和边缘的网络和双尺度动态的流行病。我们讨论了网络结构对全球流行模式影响的两个基本问题：（1）与异质网络模型的预测相反，蔬菜贸易网络的节点度和边权值的广泛变化并不决定全球流行的阈值;（2）“渗透效应”，即群落结构不会限制全球范围内的传播，快速地促进了社区之间的边缘的桥接，并且导致在整个网络中的同步扩散。我们还定义了一个适当的度量，结合双尺度行为，使量化的关键作用，疾病扩散的桥梁边缘广泛的交易。贸易网络模型的特殊结构机制可能有助于产生适应性免疫策略和减少国际贸易摩擦。
The frequent outbreak of severe foodborne diseases (e.g., haemolytic uraemic syndrome and Listeriosis) in 2011 warns of a potential threat that world trade could spread fatal pathogens (e.g., enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli). The epidemic potential from trade involves both intra-proliferation and inter-diffusion. Here, we present a worldwide vegetable trade network and a stochastic computational model to simulate global trade-mediated epidemics by considering the weighted nodes and edges of the network and the dual-scale dynamics of epidemics. We address two basic issues of network structural impact in global epidemic patterns: (1) in contrast to the prediction of heterogeneous network models, the broad variability of node degree and edge weights of the vegetable trade network do not determine the threshold of global epidemics; (2) a ‘penetration effect’, by which community structures do not restrict propagation at the global scale, quickly facilitates bridging the edges between communities, and leads to synchronized diffusion throughout the entire network. We have also defined an appropriate metric that combines dual-scale behavior and enables quantification of the critical role of bridging edges in disease diffusion from widespread trading. The unusual structure mechanisms of the trade network model may be useful in producing strategies for adaptive immunity and reducing international trade frictions.