Competition and stability analyses among emissions, energy, and economy: Application for Mexico
Competition and stability analyses among emissions, energy, and economy: Application for Mexico
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DOI：
10.1016/j.energy.2014.12.076
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发表时间：
2015-03
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
H. Pao;H. Fu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
H. Pao;H. Fu
鉴于地球上的自然资源有限，环境、能源和经济（3Es）之间的联系成为可持续发展的重要视角。本文提出利用Lotka-Volterra可持续发展模型（LV-SUD）分析3Es问题的主要因素——排放、不同类型的能源消耗（可再生能源、核能和化石燃料）和实际GDP之间的种间相互作用、平衡及其稳定性。对这些相互作用进行建模为预测结果提供了一个有用的多变量框架。3e之间的相互作用，即竞争、共生或掠夺，在政策制定中发挥重要作用，以实现能源资源的平衡利用和加强绿色经济。将LV-SUD应用于新兴市场国家墨西哥，分析结果表明，化石燃料消费与GDP之间存在共生关系；化石燃料和GDP的关系促进了排放的增长，但排放抑制了其他因素的增长；GDP受益于核能，可再生能源受益于化石燃料。建议国家能源政策应继续致力于将非清洁能源与国内生产总值之间的相关性脱钩，积极发展清洁能源，从而在不损害经济增长的情况下适当减少化石燃料的消耗和排放。
In view of limited natural resources on Earth, linkage among environment, energy, and economy (3Es) becomes important perspectives for sustainable development. This paper proposes to use Lotka–Volterra model for SUstainable Development (LV-SUD) to analyse the interspecific interactions, equilibria and their stabilities among emissions, different types of energy consumption (renewable, nuclear, and fossil fuel), and real GDP, the main factors of 3Es issues. Modelling these interactions provides a useful multivariate framework for prediction outcomes. Interaction between 3Es, namely competition, symbiosis, or predation, plays an important role in policy development to achieve a balanced use of energy resources and to strengthen the green economy. Applying LV-SUD in Mexico, an emerging markets country, analysing results show that there is a mutualism between fossil fuel consumption and GDP; prey-predator relationships that fossil fuel and GDP enhance the growth of emissions, but emissions inhibit the growth of the others; and commensalisms that GDP benefits from nuclear power, and renewable power benefits from fossil fuel. It is suggested that national energy policies should remain committed to decoupling the relevance between non-clean energy and GDP, to actively developing clean energy and thereby to properly reducing fossil fuel consumption and emissions without harming economic growth.