Historical total ozone radiative forcing derived from CMIP6 simulations
Historical total ozone radiative forcing derived from CMIP6 simulations
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DOI：
10.1038/s41612-020-00131-0
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发表时间：
2020-08
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
R. Skeie;G. Myhre;Ø. Hodnebrog;P. Cameron-smith;M. Deushi;M. Hegglin;L. Horowitz;R. Kramer;M. Michou;M. Mills;D. Oliviè;F. O. Connor;D. Paynter;B. Samset;A. Sellar;D. Shindell;T. Takemura;S. Tilmes;Tongwen Wu
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文献类型：
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作者：
R. Skeie;G. Myhre;Ø. Hodnebrog;P. Cameron-smith;M. Deushi;M. Hegglin;L. Horowitz;R. Kramer;M. Michou;M. Mills;D. Oliviè;F. O. Connor;D. Paynter;B. Samset;A. Sellar;D. Shindell;T. Takemura;S. Tilmes;Tongwen Wu
从1850年至今的臭氧总量的辐射强迫（RF）时间序列是根据10个气候模式对臭氧的历史模拟计算的，这些模式为耦合模式相互比较项目第6阶段（CMIP 6）做出了贡献。此外，RF计算臭氧场准备作为输入CMIP 6模型没有化学方案和从化学传输模型模拟。臭氧的辐射内核的构造和用于推导RF。根据对流层和平流层化学模型，2010年（2005-2014年）相对于1850年的臭氧RF为0.35 W m−2[0.08-0.61]（5-95%的不确定性范围）。其中一个模型的当前臭氧总量RF值为负值。排除这一模式后，目前的臭氧RF增加到0.39 W m−2[0.27-0.51]（5-95%的不确定性范围）。其余模型的RF接近或强于政府间气候变化专门委员会在第五次评估报告中评估的RF时间序列，主要驱动因素可能是CMIP 6中使用的新前体排放。估计平流层温度以外的快速调整是微弱的，因此RF是有效辐射强迫的一个很好的度量。
Radiative forcing (RF) time series for total ozone from 1850 up to the present day are calculated based on historical simulations of ozone from 10 climate models contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). In addition, RF is calculated for ozone fields prepared as an input for CMIP6 models without chemistry schemes and from a chemical transport model simulation. A radiative kernel for ozone is constructed and used to derive the RF. The ozone RF in 2010 (2005–2014) relative to 1850 is 0.35 W m−2[0.08–0.61] (5–95% uncertainty range) based on models with both tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry. One of these models has a negative present-day total ozone RF. Excluding this model, the present-day ozone RF increases to 0.39 W m−2[0.27–0.51] (5–95% uncertainty range). The rest of the models have RF close to or stronger than the RF time series assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in the fifth assessment report with the primary driver likely being the new precursor emissions used in CMIP6. The rapid adjustments beyond stratospheric temperature are estimated to be weak and thus the RF is a good measure of effective radiative forcing.