Reduced probability of ice-free summers for 1.5 °C compared to 2 °C warming
Reduced probability of ice-free summers for 1.5 °C compared to 2 °C warming
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DOI：
10.1038/s41558-018-0127-8
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发表时间：
2018-05-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Jahn, Alexandra
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jahn, Alexandra
随着全球气温的上升，北极海冰迅速减少。然而，在1.5摄氏度的巴黎目标下，北极夏季海冰的影响与更大变暖的情景相比会有什么不同，这在很大程度上是未知的。使用社区地球系统模型，我表明，限制升温到1.5摄氏度，而不是2.0摄氏度减少任何夏季无冰条件的可能性，到2100年从100%到30%。它还将本世纪末冰盖低于2012年最低记录的可能性从98%降至55%。对于2摄氏度以上的变暖，可以预期频繁的无冰条件，可能每年有几个月。虽然海冰的减少一般是可逆的，但只有当大气中的二氧化碳浓度降低到低于目前的浓度时，海冰才会恢复到目前的状况。由于模型偏差，这些结果提供了夏季海冰影响的下限，但清楚地表明了将变暖限制在1.5摄氏度的好处。
Arctic sea ice has declined rapidly with increasing global temperatures. However, it is largely unknown how Arctic summer seaice impacts would vary under the 1.5 degrees C Paris target compared to scenarios with greater warming. Using the Community Earth System Model, I show that constraining warming to 1.5 degrees C rather than 2.0 degrees C reduces the probability of any summer ice-free conditions by 2100 from 100% to 30%. It also reduces the late-century probability of an ice cover below the 2012 record minimum from 98% to 55%. For warming above 2 degrees C, frequent ice-free conditions can be expected, potentially for several months per year. Although sea-ice loss is generally reversible for decreasing temperatures, sea ice will only recover to current conditions if atmospheric CO2 is reduced below present-day concentrations. Due to model biases, these results provide a lower bound on summer sea-ice impacts, but clearly demonstrate the benefits of constraining warming to 1.5 degrees C.