Sources and implications of deep uncertainties surrounding sea-level projections
Sources and implications of deep uncertainties surrounding sea-level projections
复制标题
海平面预测的深度不确定性的来源和影响
DOI：
10.1007/s10584-016-1864-1
复制
发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
K. Keller
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Bakker;Domitille Louchard;K. Keller
长期的洪水风险管理往往依赖于未来的海平面预测。然而，由于方法选择不同，预计的不确定性范围差异很大。IPCC将这种深度不确定性浓缩为一个单一的不确定性范围，涵盖66%或更高的概率。或者，结构化专家判断将不同的专家意见汇总在一个分布中。最近公布的不确定性范围，来自这些“共识”的评估似乎相差高达四倍。这可能导致对科普海平面变化的战略过度自信或过度投资。在这里，我们探讨这些不同解释的可能原因。这对于（i）设计稳健的策略和（ii）探索可能最终导致某种相对简单的共识分布的途径非常重要。
Long-term flood risk management often relies on future sea-level projections. Projected uncertainty ranges are however widely divergent as a result of different methodological choices. The IPCC has condensed this deep uncertainty into a single uncertainty range covering 66% probability or more. Alternatively, structured expert judgment summarizes divergent expert opinions in a single distribution. Recently published uncertainty ranges that are derived from these “consensus” assessments appear to differ by up to a factor four. This might result in overconfidence or overinvestment in strategies to cope with sea-level change. Here we explore possible reasons for these different interpretations. This is important for (i) the design of robust strategies and (ii) the exploration of pathways that may eventually lead to some kind of consensus distributions that are relatively straightforward to interpret.