Modelling the socio-economic determinants of fertility: a mediation analysis using the parametric g-formula
Modelling the socio-economic determinants of fertility: a mediation analysis using the parametric g-formula
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DOI：
10.1111/rssa.12520
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发表时间：
2019-09-26
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Wilson, Ben
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bijlsma, Maarten J.;Wilson, Ben
理论预测，生育的时间和孩子出生的数量是由多种社会经济因素决定的。尽管如此，许多方法无法调查这些决定因素之间的相互关系，包括它们在整个生命过程中对生育率的直接和间接影响。在这里，我们使用参数g公式来检查随时间变化的社会经济过程的教育，就业状况和合作伙伴的地位对生育率的相互影响。为了证明这种方法，我们研究了一组1970年出生在英国的女性。我们的研究结果表明，社会经济进程在决定生育率方面发挥着重要作用，不仅直接，而且间接。我们发现，高等教育入学率的增加对25岁以下的早育有很大的直接影响，导致无子女率大幅增加。然而，晚育主要是受教育程度通过伴侣关系和就业状况对生育率产生的间接影响，其影响是直接影响的两倍。我们还使用g-公式来检查由于未观察到的异质性造成的偏倚，并且我们证明我们的结果似乎是稳健的。我们的结论是，该方法提供了一个有价值的工具，在相互依赖的生命历程过程的研究中介分析。
Theories predict that the timing of childbearing and number of children born are determined by multiple socio-economic factors. Despite this, many methods cannot investigate the interrelationships between these determinants, including the direct and indirect influence that they have on fertility over the life course. Here we use the parametric g-formula to examine the interdependent influences of time-varying socio-economic processes-education, employment status and partnership status-on fertility. To demonstrate this approach, we study a cohort of women who were born in the UK in 1970. Our results show that socio-economic processes play an important role in determining fertility, not only directly but also indirectly. We show that increasing attendance in higher education has a largely direct effect on early childbearing up to age 25 years, resulting in a substantial increase in childlessness. However, childbearing at later ages is dominated by an indirect effect of education on fertility, via partnership status and employment status, that is twice as large as the direct effect. We also use the g-formula to examine bias due to unobserved heterogeneity, and we demonstrate that our results appear to be robust. We conclude that the method provides a valuable tool for mediation analysis in studies of interdependent life course processes.