Don't go chasing artificial waterfalls: Artificial line limits and cascading failures in power grids.
Don't go chasing artificial waterfalls: Artificial line limits and cascading failures in power grids.
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DOI：
10.1063/1.5115493
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发表时间：
2019-11
期刊：
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
J. Bourne;A. O'Sullivan;E. Arcaute
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Bourne;A. O'Sullivan;E. Arcaute
研究输电网络中的连锁故障，需要详细的数据，个别输电线路的能力。然而，研究人员通常无法获得这些数据。因此，线路极限通常通过假设它们与某个平均负荷成比例来建模。然而，很少有研究支持这一假设是现实的。在本文中，我们分析了比例加载（PL）的方法，并将其与两个线性模型进行比较，这两个线性模型使用电压和初始潮流作为变量，并在我们可以访问的真实的电力网络的线路限制上进行训练。我们比较这些人工线限制的方法，使用四个测试：真正的线限制模型的能力，在攻击过程中所做的损害，在边缘丢失的顺序，和准确性排名不同的攻击策略的相对性能。我们发现线性模型是我们执行的所有测试中表现最好的方法或接近顶部。相比之下，产生最佳PL限值的公差值根据测试而变化。PL方法是一个特别差的拟合时，线公差小于2，这是最常用的值范围内的级联故障研究。我们还发现，建模线限制的准确性并不表明一个模型将如何代表网格崩溃的迹象。本文的研究结果提供了PL方法的弱点的理解，并提供了一种替代方法的线限制建模。
Research on cascading failures in power-transmission networks requires detailed data on the capacity of individual transmission lines. However, these data are often unavailable to researchers. Consequently, line limits are often modeled by assuming that they are proportional to some average load. However, there is scarce research to support this assumption as being realistic. In this paper, we analyze the proportional loading (PL) approach and compare it to two linear models that use voltage and initial power flow as variables and are trained on the line limits of a real power network that we have access to. We compare these artificial line-limit methods using four tests: the ability to model true line limits, the damage done during an attack, the order in which edges are lost, and accuracy ranking the relative performance of different attack strategies. We find that the linear models are the top-performing method or are close to the top in all the tests we perform. In comparison, the tolerance value that produces the best PL limits changes depending on the test. The PL approach was a particularly poor fit when the line tolerance was less than two, which is the most commonly used value range in cascading failure research. We also find indications that the accuracy of modeling line limits does not indicate how well a model will represent grid collapse. The findings of this paper provide an understanding of the weaknesses of the PL approach and offer an alternative method of line-limit modeling.