Guidelines for Studying Diverse Types of Compound Weather and Climate Events
Guidelines for Studying Diverse Types of Compound Weather and Climate Events
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DOI：
10.1029/2021ef002340
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发表时间：
2021-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
8.2
通讯作者：
Zscheischler, Jakob
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bevacqua, Emanuele;De Michele, Carlo;Zscheischler, Jakob
复合天气和气候事件是造成社会或环境风险的气候驱动因素和/或危害的组合。研究复合事件往往需要采用多学科方法，将潜在过程的领域知识与统计方法和气候模式输出等结合起来。近年来，为了促进复合事件研究的发展，提出了四种复合事件类型，即（a）预处理复合事件，（B）多元复合事件，（c）时间复合事件，（d）空间复合事件。然而，关于如何研究这类事件的指导方针仍然缺乏。在这里，我们考虑了四个案例研究，每个案例都与一个特定的事件类型和一个研究问题相关联，以说明复合事件的关键要素（例如，分析工具和相关的物理效应）。这些案例研究表明：（a）炎热和干燥的夏季对作物的影响可能因干燥和明亮的泉水的预处理效应而加剧。(b)评估复合沿海洪水在珀斯（澳大利亚）需要考虑一个非平稳的多变量过程的动态。例如，未来平均海平面上升将导致沿海和河流同时出现极端情况，增加复合洪水风险。(c)在葡萄牙，深层滑坡往往是由中等降水事件的时间集群造成的。最后，（d）法国和德国的作物歉收密切相关，通过空间复合效应威胁欧洲粮食安全。这些分析可以确定研究复合事件的一般建议。总的来说，我们的见解可以作为跨学科和部门的复合事件分析的蓝图。
Compound weather and climate events are combinations of climate drivers and/or hazards that contribute to societal or environmental risk. Studying compound events often requires a multidisciplinary approach combining domain knowledge of the underlying processes with, for example, statistical methods and climate model outputs. Recently, to aid the development of research on compound events, four compound event types were introduced, namely (a) preconditioned, (b) multivariate, (c) temporally compounding, and (d) spatially compounding events. However, guidelines on how to study these types of events are still lacking. Here, we consider four case studies, each associated with a specific event type and a research question, to illustrate how the key elements of compound events (e.g., analytical tools and relevant physical effects) can be identified. These case studies show that (a) impacts on crops from hot and dry summers can be exacerbated by preconditioning effects of dry and bright springs. (b) Assessing compound coastal flooding in Perth (Australia) requires considering the dynamics of a non-stationary multivariate process. For instance, future mean sea-level rise will lead to the emergence of concurrent coastal and fluvial extremes, enhancing compound flooding risk. (c) In Portugal, deep-landslides are often caused by temporal clusters of moderate precipitation events. Finally, (d) crop yield failures in France and Germany are strongly correlated, threatening European food security through spatially compounding effects. These analyses allow for identifying general recommendations for studying compound events. Overall, our insights can serve as a blueprint for compound event analysis across disciplines and sectors.