Introducing the Journal of Population Ageing
Introducing the Journal of Population Ageing
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人口老龄化杂志简介
DOI：
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发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
G. Leeson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Harper;G. Leeson
世纪后半叶，世界上较发达国家经历了人口老龄化，其程度在人口统计学史上是前所未有的。预计在21世纪上半叶，较不发达国家和转型期国家也将经历同样的转型。到2050年，全球将有大约20亿60岁以上的成年人，老年人总数将超过年轻人。这在历史上是前所未有的。它使20世纪成为最后一个年轻的世纪，使21世纪成为第一个人口成熟的世纪。在过去的世纪，大多数西方国家都在持续老龄化，老龄化的衡量标准是60岁以上人口的百分比增加，15岁以下人口的百分比减少。欧洲在千年之交达到成熟，老年人多于年轻人。到2030年，西欧一半的人口将超过50岁，25%超过65岁，15%超过75岁。到2030年，发达世界四分之一的人口将超过65岁，到世纪中期，这一数字将上升到三分之一。然而，虽然人们的注意力主要集中在欧洲的老龄化问题上，但亚洲/太平洋区域的老龄化速度最快。到2030年，亚洲四分之一的人口将超过60岁，到2040年，亚洲人口将趋于成熟，老年人将多于年轻人。如果我们从结构性老龄化转向考虑老年人的绝对人数，则较不发达区域，特别是亚洲的主导地位就更加明显。世界上已有三分之二的老年人口生活在欠发达地区，这些地区老年人的绝对人数在25年内翻了一番，达到约9亿人。到2050年，世界上三分之二的老年人将生活在亚洲。到2050年，80岁及以上的人口将出现更大的增长，从6 900万增加到近4亿。因此，到21世纪世纪中期，80岁以上的人将与65岁以上的人一样多。这是世界上增长最快的年龄组，年增长率为3.8%。第一次世界大战前后的低生育率和人口老龄化的下降（2008年）1：1-5 DOI 10.1007/s12062-009-9012-6
The second half of the 20th century saw the more developed countries of the world experience population ageing to a degree hitherto unseen in demographic history. The first half of the 21 Century is predicted to see the same transition within the less developed and transitional countries. Globally, by 2050 there will be some 2 billion adults aged over 60, and the total number of older people will outnumber the young. This is historically unprecedented. It makes the 20 century the last century of youth, the 21 century the first of population maturity. Most western style countries have aged continuously over the past century, the measure of ageing being an increase in the percentage of those over 60 years, and a decrease in those under 15 years. Europe reached maturity at the turn of the millennium, with more older people than younger. By 2030 half the population of Western Europe will be over 50, 25% over 65, and 15% over 75. By 2030 one quarter of the population of the developed world will be over 65, and by the middle of the century this will have risen to one third. Yet while most interest has focused on the ageing of Europe, it is the Asian/Pacific region that is ageing most rapidly. By 2030 one quarter of the population of Asia will be over 60, and by 2040 Asia will be demographically mature, with more older than younger people. If we move from structural ageing to consider absolute numbers of older people, the dominance of the less developed regions, and in particular Asia, becomes even more apparent. Already two thirds of the world’s older population live in less developed regions with the absolute numbers of older people in these regions doubling to reach some 900 million within 25 years. By 2050 two-thirds of the world’s elders will live in Asia alone. The numbers of those aged 80 and above will show an even greater increase, rising from 69 million to near 400 million by 2050. Thus by the middle of the 21st Century there will be almost as many over 80s as there were over 65s at the beginning. This is the fastest growing age group in the world with an annual growth rate of 3.8%. Low fertility around the time of the First World War and declining Population Ageing (2008) 1:1–5 DOI 10.1007/s12062-009-9012-6