High resolution climate projection of storm surge at the Venetian coast
High resolution climate projection of storm surge at the Venetian coast
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DOI：
10.5194/nhess-13-1135-2013
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发表时间：
2013-04
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
R. Mel;A. Sterl;P. Lionello
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Mel;A. Sterl;P. Lionello
抽象的。气候变化对风暴潮的影响对威尼斯的安全和维护至关重要。在这项研究中，未来风暴潮的情况下进行评估，使用新的高分辨率海平面压力和风的数据最近产生的EC地球，地球系统模型的基础上业务的季节预报系统的欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）。该研究考虑了一个集合的6个5年长的模拟的rcp 45情景在0.25°分辨率和比较2094 - 2098年的2004-2008年期间。EC-地球海平面压力和表面风场被用作浅水流体动力学模型（HYPSE）的输入，该模型计算亚得里亚海的海平面和正压海流。结果表明，需要一个高分辨率的气候模型，以产生现实的价值观的风暴潮统计数据，并确认以前的研究，他们表现出小的敏感性风暴潮水平的气候变化。然而，一些气候变化的信号被检测到，如高压条件的持续性增加，无风小时的频率增加，以及中等风暴的数量减少。
Abstract. Climate change impact on storm surge regime is of great importance for the safety and maintenance of Venice. In this study a future storm surge scenario is evaluated using new high resolution sea level pressure and wind data recently produced by EC-Earth, an Earth System Model based on the operational seasonal forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The study considers an ensemble of six 5 yr long simulations of the rcp45 scenario at 0.25° resolution and compares the 2094–2098 to the 2004–2008 period. EC-Earth sea level pressure and surface wind fields are used as input for a shallow water hydrodynamic model (HYPSE) which computes sea level and barotropic currents in the Adriatic Sea. Results show that a high resolution climate model is needed for producing realistic values of storm surge statistics and confirm previous studies in that they show little sensitivity of storm surge levels to climate change. However, some climate change signals are detected, such as increased persistence of high pressure conditions, an increased frequency of windless hour, and a decreased number of moderate windstorms.