When Disasters Hit Civil Wars: Natural Resource Exploitation and Rebel Group Resilience
When Disasters Hit Civil Wars: Natural Resource Exploitation and Rebel Group Resilience
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当灾难袭击内战时：自然资源开发和叛乱团体的恢复力
DOI：
10.1093/isq/sqab014
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Lee Chia-yi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Tominaga Yasutaka;Lee Chia-yi
关于自然灾害与冲突之间关系的现有文献得出了各种不同的结论。在这篇文章中，我们认为，自然灾害是否会伤害反叛组织的弹性取决于他们的资金来源和资源开采模式。从自然资源中获得资金的反叛团体更容易受到自然灾害的影响，因为这种资金来源很容易被突如其来的灾害破坏。反叛团体如何利用自然资源财富也决定了自然灾害对反叛团体复原力的影响。依赖勒索资源生产的反叛团体，尽管有着看似稳定的收入来源，但更有可能在严重的自然灾害后面临资金削减。相比之下，依赖走私自然资源的反叛团体，由于灵活性和机动性较高，更有可能在自然灾害中幸存下来。我们测试我们的论点使用的数据武装团体，自然灾害和叛乱分子的违禁品，和logit模型的结果与相互作用的条款支持我们的假设。我们的研究结果连接了环境冲突文献和资源诅咒文献，并提供了重要的政策含义。
Existing literature on the relationship between natural disasters and conflicts provides mixed findings. In this article, we argue that whether natural disasters hurt rebel group resilience depends on their funding source and the mode of resource extraction. Rebel groups that obtain their funding from natural resources are more susceptible to natural disasters because this funding source could be easily disrupted by rapid-onset disasters. How rebel groups exploit natural resource wealth also conditions the effect of natural disasters on rebel group resilience. Rebel groups that depend on extorting resource production, despite having a seemingly stable revenue stream, are more likely to face funding cuts after a severe natural disaster. In contrast, rebel groups that rely on smuggling natural resources, due to a higher level of flexibility and mobility, are more likely to survive natural disasters. We test our arguments using data on armed groups, natural disasters, and rebel contraband, and the results of the logit models with interaction terms support our hypotheses. Our findings bridge the environmental conflict literature and the resource curse literature, and offer important policy implications.