Climate change research and action must look beyond 2100
Climate change research and action must look beyond 2100
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DOI：
10.1111/gcb.15871
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发表时间：
2021-09-24
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Aze, Tracy
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lyon, Christopher;Saupe, Erin E.;Aze, Tracy
人为活动正在改变地球的气候和生态系统，对人类具有潜在的危险和破坏性。大气中的温室气体浓度继续上升，确保这些变化将在2100年（目前的预测基准）之后的几个世纪内持续存在。因此，将过去、当前和未来潜在排放的影响仅估计到2100年是短视的。粮食生产和气候迫使的人类移徙的严重问题预计将在2100年之前出现，从而对地球上某些地区在世纪之交后的可居住性提出疑问。为了强调需要更远的地平线扫描，我们模拟气候变化到2500年的一套排放情景和量化相关的预测作物的生存能力和热应力。我们的预测表明，如果不迅速减缓，2100年后全球气候影响将显著增加。因此，我们认为，气候预测及其对人类福祉的影响以及相关的治理和政策必须在2100年之后制定。
Anthropogenic activity is changing Earth's climate and ecosystems in ways that are potentially dangerous and disruptive to humans. Greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere continue to rise, ensuring that these changes will be felt for centuries beyond 2100, the current benchmark for projection. Estimating the effects of past, current, and potential future emissions to only 2100 is therefore short-sighted. Critical problems for food production and climate-forced human migration are projected to arise well before 2100, raising questions regarding the habitability of some regions of the Earth after the turn of the century. To highlight the need for more distant horizon scanning, we model climate change to 2500 under a suite of emission scenarios and quantify associated projections of crop viability and heat stress. Together, our projections show global climate impacts increase significantly after 2100 without rapid mitigation. As a result, we argue that projections of climate and its effects on human well-being and associated governance and policy must be framed beyond 2100.