Decision Theory and Real Estate Development: A Note on Uncertainty
Decision Theory and Real Estate Development: A Note on Uncertainty
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决策理论与房地产开发：关于不确定性的注释
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.727204
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发表时间：
2005
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
L. Gabrielli
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
E. Atherton;N. French;L. Gabrielli
房地产开发评估是对未来预期的量化。评估模式依赖于估值师/发展商对未来已完成发展项目的市场价值和未来发展成本的了解。在某些情况下，开发人员可以在一定程度上控制变量的可能变化，例如通过选择规范来控制施工成本。然而，其他变量，如最终产品的销售价格，则完全取决于完成日期时市场的变幻莫测。为了尝试解决与预期（建模）结果不同的风险，开发人员通常会对开发进行敏感性分析。然而，传统的敏感性分析通常只关注最好和最坏的情况，并关注预期或预期的结果。这并没有考虑到不确定性和可能发生的结果范围。更充分的分析应包括审查评估的每个组成部分的不确定性，并考虑到变量的适当分布。同样，由于模型中的许多变量不是独立的，因此需要将这些变量关联起来。这需要一个标准化的方法，我们建议使用一个通用的预测软件包，在这种情况下，水晶球，允许分析师使用在Excel（或其他电子表格）中建立的现有开发评估模型，并使用一组预先确定的概率分布。如果没有对风险的充分了解，开发人员就无法确定应该寻求补偿风险的预期回报水平。该模型允许用户更好地理解开发的可能结果。最终，最终的决策将相对于当前的期望和当前的业务约束做出，但是通过更适当地评估上行和下行风险，决策者应该能够更好地做出更明智和更好的决策。
Real estate development appraisal is a quantification of future expectations. The appraisal model relies upon the valuer/developer having an understanding of the future in terms of the future marketability of the completed development and the future cost of development. In some cases the developer has some degree of control over the possible variation in the variables, as with the cost of construction through the choice of specification. However, other variables, such as the sale price of the final product, are totally dependent upon the vagaries of the market at the completion date. To try to address the risk of a different outcome to the one expected (modelled) the developer will often carry out a sensitivity analysis on the development. However, traditional sensitivity analysis has generally only looked at the best and worst scenarios and has focused on the anticipated or expected outcomes. This does not take into account uncertainty and the range of outcomes that can happen. A fuller analysis should include examination of the uncertainties in each of the components of the appraisal and account for the appropriate distributions of the variables. Similarly, as many of the variables in the model are not independent, the variables need to be correlated. This requires a standardised approach and we suggest that the use of a generic forecasting software package, in this case Crystal Ball, allows the analyst to work with an existing development appraisal model set up in Excel (or other spreadsheet) and to work with a predetermined set of probability distributions. Without a full knowledge of risk, developers are unable to determine the anticipated level of return that should be sought to compensate for the risk. This model allows the user a better understanding of the possible outcomes for the development. Ultimately the final decision will be made relative to current expectations and current business constraints, but by assessing the upside and downside risks more appropriately, the decision maker should be better placed to make a more informed and better decision.