A Probability Model for Verifying Deterministic Forecasts of Extreme Events
A Probability Model for Verifying Deterministic Forecasts of Extreme Events
复制标题
验证极端事件确定性预测的概率模型
DOI：
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发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
C. Ferro
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
C. Ferro
本文提出了一种方法来验证罕见的确定性预测，极端事件定义为超过一个高阈值。基于极值理论的预报和观测联合分布的概率模型，用两个关键参数来表征预报系统的质量。这使得验证措施能够对任何罕见事件进行估计，并有助于减少与直接估计相关的不确定性。得到了置信区域，并用该方法对两种业务数值天气预报模式的日降水预报进行了比较。
This article proposes a method for verifying deterministic forecasts of rare, extreme events defined by exceedance above a high threshold. A probability model for the joint distribution of forecasts and observations, and based on extreme-value theory, characterizes the quality of forecasting systems with two key parameters. This enables verification measures to be estimated for any event rarity and helps to reduce the uncertainty associated with direct estimation. Confidence regions are obtained and the method is used to compare daily precipitation forecasts from two operational numerical weather prediction models.
影响因子：
22.4
作者：
SWETS, JA
通讯作者：
SWETS, JA