Megacities are causal pacemakers of extreme heatwaves
Megacities are causal pacemakers of extreme heatwaves
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DOI：
10.1038/s42949-024-00148-x
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发表时间：
2024-02
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Xueli Yang;Zhi-Hua Wang;Chenghao Wang;Ying-Cheng Lai
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作者：
Xueli Yang;Zhi-Hua Wang;Chenghao Wang;Ying-Cheng Lai
全球气候变化已被证明会导致持续时间更长、强度更大、频率更高的热浪，其中集中在城市地区的人为应激源是关键因素。在这项研究中，我们结合复杂网络和因果分析，调查了美国520个城市地点在热浪期间的因果相互作用。在构建的因果网络和远程联系中，区域调解人的存在是显而易见的。更重要的是，纽约和芝加哥等特大城市与大多数其他城市之间存在因果关系，并在热浪期间协调城市网络的结构。我们还发现，超大城市的因果关系强度与总人口之间存在显著的正相关关系。这些发现证实了人类活动，如温室气体或废热的人为排放，对城市热浪的贡献。遥相关和超节点的出现对预测和适应全球气候变化下的热浪具有重要意义。
Global climate change has been shown to cause longer, more intense, and frequent heatwaves, of which anthropogenic stressors concentrated in urban areas are a critical contributor. In this study, we investigate the causal interactions during heatwaves across 520 urban sites in the U.S. combining complex network and causal analysis. The presence of regional mediators is manifest in the constructed causal networks, together with long-range teleconnections. More importantly, megacities, such as New York City and Chicago, are causally connected with most of other cities and mediate the structure of urban networks during heatwaves. We also identified a significantly positive correlation between the causality strength and the total populations in megacities. These findings corroborate the contribution of human activities e.g., anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases or waste heat, to urban heatwaves. The emergence of teleconnections and supernodes are informative for the prediction and adaptation to heatwaves under global climate change.