The implications of climate policy for the impacts of climate change on global water resources
The implications of climate policy for the impacts of climate change on global water resources
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.01.015
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发表时间：
2011-05-01
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Isaac, Morna
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Arnell, Nigel W.;van Vuuren, Detlef P.;Isaac, Morna
本文评估了气候政策对水资源压力暴露的影响。它比较了到21世纪末导致全球平均气温上升4摄氏度的参考情景与将温室气体浓度稳定在450ppm CO(2)e左右并导致2100年上升2摄氏度的缓解情景。利用全球水文模型，对气温和降雨量变化的四种空间模式，模拟了河流径流的相关变化。这四种模式在水文变化方面有相当大的差异，但在全球范围内避免变化的百分比相对较大。到本世纪50年代，缓解情景通常可以避免参考情景下16%到30%的径流变化，到2100年，它可以避免43%到65%的径流变化。根据人均资源量和取水量与资源量的比率，计算了两种不同的水资源压力暴露指标。使用第一个措施，缓解情景在2050年避免了8-17%的影响，在2100年避免了20-31%；使用第二个措施，避免的影响分别为5-21%和15-47%。然而，与此同时，缓解情景也减少了气候变化对其他地区缺水的积极影响。受气候变化和气候政策影响的绝对人数和地点在四种气候模型模式之间差别很大。(C)2011爱思唯尔有限公司。保留所有权利。
This paper assesses the implications of climate policy for exposure to water resources stresses. It compares a Reference scenario which leads to an increase in global mean temperature of 4 degrees C by the end of the 21st century with a Mitigation scenario which stabilises greenhouse gas concentrations at around 450 ppm CO(2)e and leads to a 2 degrees C increase in 2100. Associated changes in river runoff are simulated using a global hydrological model, for four spatial patterns of change in temperature and rainfall. There is a considerable difference in hydrological change between these four patterns, but the percentages of change avoided at the global scale are relatively robust. By the 2050s, the Mitigation scenario typically avoids between 16 and 30% of the change in runoff under the Reference scenario, and by 2100 it avoids between 43 and 65%. Two different measures of exposure to water resources stress are calculated, based on resources per capita and the ratio of withdrawals to resources. Using the first measure, the Mitigation scenario avoids 8-17% of the impact in 2050 and 20-31% in 2100; with the second measure, the avoided impacts are 5-21% and 15-47% respectively. However, at the same time, the Mitigation scenario also reduces the positive impacts of climate change on water scarcity in other areas. The absolute numbers and locations of people affected by climate change and climate policy vary considerably between the four climate model patterns. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.