Use of agro-climate ensembles for quantifying uncertainty and informing adaptation
Use of agro-climate ensembles for quantifying uncertainty and informing adaptation
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DOI：
10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.09.007
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发表时间：
2013-03-15
影响因子：
6.2
通讯作者：
Thornton, Philip
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Challinor, Andrew J.;Smith, Mark Stafford;Thornton, Philip
在利用整体农业和气候建模以及观测数据预测未来生产力和制定适应办法方面取得了重大进展。越来越多的农业模型是专门为气候集合设计的，并开发了量化气候和农业不确定性的改进方法。虽然作物与气候的关系仍然是这类农业研究中最常见的，但农场管理、水文、病虫害和牲畜现在也在研究之中。本文介绍了所有这些领域的进展，更多的细节可以在随后的特刊中找到。剩余的科学挑战进行了讨论，并区分预测和效用为基础的方法来农业气候集成建模。就分析和报告不确定性的方式以及使用模型和数据对未来进行推断的方式提出了建议。一个关键的基本原则是使用模型作为提取信息的工具，而不是作为代表现实的竞争性尝试。(c)2012 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。
Significant progress has been made in the use of ensemble agricultural and climate modelling, and observed data, to project future productivity and to develop adaptation options. An increasing number of agricultural models are designed specifically for use with climate ensembles, and improved methods to quantify uncertainty in both climate and agriculture have been developed. Whilst crop-climate relationships are still the most common agricultural study of this sort, on-farm management, hydrology, pests, diseases and livestock are now also examined. This paper introduces all of these areas of progress, with more detail being found in the subsequent papers in the special issue. Remaining scientific challenges are discussed, and a distinction is developed between projection- and utility-based approaches to agro-climate ensemble modelling. Recommendations are made regarding the manner in which uncertainty is analysed and reported, and the way in which models and data are used to make inferences regarding the future. A key underlying principle is the use of models as tools from which information is extracted, rather than as competing attempts to represent reality. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.