THE EFFECT OF HOUSEHOLD DISTRIBUTION ON TRANSMISSION AND CONTROL OF HIGHLY INFECTIOUS-DISEASES
THE EFFECT OF HOUSEHOLD DISTRIBUTION ON TRANSMISSION AND CONTROL OF HIGHLY INFECTIOUS-DISEASES
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DOI：
10.1016/0025-5564(94)00055-5
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发表时间：
1995-06-01
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
DIETZ, K
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
BECKER, NG;DIETZ, K
对于高度传染性疾病在家庭社区中的传播，导出了两个流行病阈值参数，其中家庭是成员之间经常接触的任何群体。假设一个家庭中任何成员的感染都会导致该家庭中所有易感成员的感染。阈值参数用平均户数和每户易感人数的均值和方差来简单表示。它们为感染在个体间传播提供了基本繁殖数R(0)，为感染在家庭间传播提供了基本繁殖数R（HO）。阈值参数用于得出预防社区重大流行病所需的免疫水平。它们还用于评估具有相同疫苗接种覆盖率的各种疫苗接种策略。对于一个家庭规模相等的社区，我们发现随机为个人接种疫苗比为相应比例家庭的所有成员接种疫苗更好。相反，当家庭规模不同时，对大户家庭的所有成员进行免疫接种可能比对随机选择的个人进行相应的免疫接种覆盖率更好。研究表明，这些阈值参数也可以用于有学校或日托中心的家庭社区。特别是，对学校所有成员进行免疫接种的有效性是量化的。
Two epidemic threshold parameters are derived for the spread of a highly infectious disease in a community of households, where a household is any group whose members have frequent contacts with each other. It is assumed that the infection of any member of a household results in the infection of all susceptible members of that household. The threshold parameters have simple expressions in terms of the mean household size and the mean and variance of the number of susceptibles per household. They provide a basic reproduction number R(0) for the spread of infection from individual to individual and a basic reproduction number R(HO) for the spread of infection from household to household. The threshold parameters are used to derive the levels of immunity required for the prevention of major epidemics in the community. They are also used to evaluate various vaccination strategies having the same vaccination coverage. For a community with households of equal size, it is found that random vaccination of individuals is better than immunizing all members of a corresponding fraction of households. In contrast, when households have varying sizes, immunizing all members of large households can be better than a corresponding vaccination coverage of randomly selected individuals. It is illustrated that these threshold parameters can also be used for a community of households with schools or day care centers. In particular, the effectiveness of immunizing all members of a school is quantified.