The last decade of global anthropogenic sulfur dioxide: 2000-2011 emissions
The last decade of global anthropogenic sulfur dioxide: 2000-2011 emissions
复制标题
DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014003
复制
发表时间：
2013-01-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Cofala, J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Klimont, Z.;Smith, S. J.;Cofala, J.
过去十年全球和区域人为SO2排放量的演变是通过自下而上的计算估算的。在大约2006年之前一直在增加，我们估计下降趋势将持续到2011年。然而，空间变异性很大，北美和欧洲继续减少排放，亚洲和国际航运的作用越来越大。中国仍然是一个关键的贡献者，但引入了更严格的排放限制，随后又实施了雄心勃勃的发电厂烟气脱硫计划，导致能源部门的排放量大幅下降，中国二氧化硫排放总量稳定。其他几个亚洲国家和工业部门总体上还没有类似的减缓战略，而国际航运的排放量预计将在一项减少燃料油硫含量的国际协定之后很快开始下降。全球二氧化硫排放量的估计趋势在代表性浓度路径预测和先前对2005年估计的不确定性的范围内。
The evolution of global and regional anthropogenic SO2 emissions in the last decade has been estimated through a bottom-up calculation. After increasing until about 2006, we estimate a declining trend continuing until 2011. However, there is strong spatial variability, with North America and Europe continuing to reduce emissions, with an increasing role of Asia and international shipping. China remains a key contributor, but the introduction of stricter emission limits followed by an ambitious program of installing flue gas desulfurization on power plants resulted in a significant decline in emissions from the energy sector and stabilization of total Chinese SO2 emissions. Comparable mitigation strategies are not yet present in several other Asian countries and industrial sectors in general, while emissions from international shipping are expected to start declining soon following an international agreement to reduce the sulfur content of fuel oil. The estimated trends in global SO2 emissions are within the range of representative concentration pathway (RCP) projections and the uncertainty previously estimated for the year 2005.