PrematureDeindustrialization Risk in Asian LatecomerDevelopingEconomies
PrematureDeindustrialization Risk in Asian LatecomerDevelopingEconomies
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亚洲后来者发展中经济体过早的去工业化风险
DOI：
10.1162/asep_a_00851
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
9.7
通讯作者：
Hiroyuki Taguchi and Yuta Tsukada
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
伊藤匡;松浦寿幸;Shigeki Ono;栗田匡相;Hiroyuki Taguchi and Yuta Tsukada
本研究考察了亚洲后发发展中国家过早去工业化的风险，重点关注其制造业产出比率。与以往文献将亚洲经济体视为具有制造业比较优势的群体不同，本实证分析采用了后发指数来证明后发经济体的制造业-收入关系是向下移动的，这意味着过早的去工业化风险。此外，它还表明，制造业贸易逆差国家（与贸易顺差国家相比）和南亚国家（与东南亚国家相比）的风险更高。因此，亚洲经济体应提高其物流绩效，以更大程度地参与全球价值链，以避免过早去工业化。
This study examines the risk of premature deindustrialization in latecomer developing countries in Asia, focusing on their manufacturing output ratio. Diverging from the literature that treats Asian economies as a group with comparative advantages in manufacturing, this empirical analysis adopts the latecomer index to demonstrate downward shifts in the latecomers’ manufacturing–income relationship, implying a premature deindustrialization risk. Furthermore, it shows that the risk is higher for manufacturing trade-deficit countries (compared with trade-surplus countries) and for South Asian countries (compared with Southeast Asian countries). Therefore, Asian economies should improve their logistics performance for greater global value chain participation to avoid premature deindustrialization.