Predictive thresholds for plague in Kazakhstan
Predictive thresholds for plague in Kazakhstan
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DOI：
10.1126/science.1095854
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发表时间：
2004-04-30
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Leirs, H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Davis, S;Begon, M;Leirs, H
在哈萨克斯坦和中亚的其他地方，鼠疫耶尔森氏菌在沙鼠的自然种群中传播，沙鼠是人类淋巴腺鼠疫病例的来源。我们对1955年和1996年之间收集的现场数据的分析表明，鼠疫入侵，淡出，并在其主要的水库主机，大沙鼠（Rhombomys opimus）的丰度的波动，再入侵。这是一个罕见的经验的例子，两种类型的丰度阈值的传染病的入侵和持久性，在一个单一的野生动物种群。我们参数化的预测模型，应减少在中亚鼠疫监测的成本，从而鼓励其持续。
In Kazakhstan and elsewhere in central Asia, the bacterium Yersinia pestis circulates in natural populations of gerbils, which are the source of human cases of bubonic plague. Our analysis of field data collected between 1955 and 1996 shows that plague invades, fades out, and reinvades in response to fluctuations in the abundance of its main reservoir host, the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus). This is a rare empirical example of the two types of abundance thresholds for infectious disease-invasion and persistence-operating in a single wildlife population. We parameterized predictive models that should reduce the costs of plague surveillance in central Asia and thereby encourage its continuance.